Emerson Poll: Donald Trump Leads Biden in Every Key Swing State

Former US President and 2024 presidential candidate Donald Trump gives a thumbs up before
GIORGIO VIERA/AFP via Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in six swing states, an Emerson/DemNextGen poll found Monday, further fueling fears among Democrats about Biden’s political viability.

Trump leads in every swing state by at least three points, except in Michigan, where he leads by one:

  • Pennsylvania – Trump: 48% (+5) Biden: 43%
  • Wisconsin – Trump: 47% (+3) Biden: 44% 
  • Michigan – Trump: 45% (+1) Biden: 44%
  • Nevada – Trump: 47% (+6) Biden: 41%
  • Arizona – Trump: 46% (+4) Biden: 42% 
  • Georgia – Trump: 47% (+5) Biden: 42%

Trump increased his lead over Biden in Georgia (+1), Nevada (+4), and Pennsylvania (+3), the July Emerson poll shows compared to June’s poll.

The sample size and margin of error were not immediately available.

WATCH — Dem Pollster Greenberg: Dem Base Gives Trump Higher Approval Ratings than Biden

Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will decide the president, longtime Democrat adviser Doug Sosnik wrote in the New York Times. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral votes become narrower.

Emerson polling comes after a rash of negative polls for Biden following the presidential debate.

As Breitbart News reported, those include:

  1. Suffolk University poll: Forty-one percent of Democrat voters want President Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, while only 51 percent want him to remain on the ticket.
  2.  YouGov poll: 72 percent of voters say Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, while another 72 percent of voters want Biden to drop out of the race.
  3. New York Times/Siena poll: Trump leads Biden by 6 points, a three-point swing from last week and the largest recorded lead since 2015 in Times polling.
  4. Wall Street Journal poll: Trump leads Biden by 6 points, his largest-ever lead in a Journal survey.
  5. Leaked internal Open Labs poll: “Biden’s vote share in the two-way horse race declined by -0.8pp,” and the “vote share against Trump in the multi-way also declined by -0.8pp.” The results reveal “the largest single-week drop since horse race tracking began in late 2021,” according to the memo.
  6. CNN pollTrump built a lead over Biden of 49 percent to 43 percent.

Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.


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