The final poll from Politico/George Washington University shows a national deadlock between Mitt Romney and incumbent President Barack Obama, each garnering 47% of the vote nationally. Independents, as in all other polls, break heavily for Romney – he clocks in at a 47-32 advantage, a 15 point spread. According to Politico:
One-third of the electorate has already voted, including 36 percent of Romney supporters and 33 percent of Obama supporters.
The potentially more important number is a combination nationally of those who have already voted and those who call themselves “extremely likely” to vote. Romney leads this group by 3 percent, 51 percent to 48 percent.
The big question that arises from the poll is the swing states, where Politico has Obama ahead by six points. That raises the question of a popular vote/electoral vote split. The poll appears to be a D+3 sample.