Polls: Support for President Trump Surges in Black Community

US President Donald Trump arrives to address supporters during a campaign rally at Manches
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Support for President Trump has surged in the black community, according to three recent polls.

If the polls are correct, the percentage of black voters who will cast ballots for Trump in 2020 could more than double from the eight percent he received in 2016.

An Emerson poll released on Monday found that 19 percent of black voters will vote for the president this November, while a Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll released on Sunday also found the level of black support for the president at 19 percent, and a Zogby poll released on Monday showed 20 percent of black voters intend to vote for Trump instead of Biden.

All three polls found the head-to-head match up between Trump and Biden tightening. The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll shows the president with a three-point lead, 48 percent to 45 percent, while the Emerson poll shows Biden with a two-point lead, 49 percent to 47 percent, and the Zogby Poll shows Biden with a six-point lead, 48 percent to 42 percent.

“Biden should be pleased with his support among Democrats, women, and Hispanics but a lead of 75%-20% among Blacks can spell real trouble,” pollster John Zogby said of the Zogby poll results.

“A Democrat needs 90%+ and a high turnout among Blacks. Could it be that Trump’s law and order message is hitting home among Blacks who are worried about demonstrations getting out of control?” Zogby added.

“The Republican convention gave Trump his most positive week of news coverage which likely attributes to his bounce in this month’s poll and increasing job approval,” Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said in the statement accompanying the release of the Emerson poll results Monday, which showed Trump’s surge among black voters:

Biden leads with all minority groups, albeit by different ranges. Biden leads with Asians 76% to 11%, Blacks/African Americans 77% to 19%, and Hispanic voters break for Biden 60% to 37%. White voters break for President Trump 56% to 41%. [emphasis added]

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll also confirmed Trump’s surge among black voters, as well as greater strength among Hispanic voters than in 2016, as Breitbart News reported:

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll shows that Trump leads Biden among white voters by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin. The president’s support among black and Hispanic voters has increased.

Nineteen percent of black voters support President Trump, while 77 percent support former Vice President Biden. This represents an 11 point increase of support among black voters for the president, compared to the 8 percent support he received in the 2016 presidential election.

Thirty nine percent of Hispanic voters support President Trump, while only 50 percent support former Vice President Biden, a ten point increase in support among Hispanic voters for the president, compared to the 28 percent he received in the 2016 presidential election.

With the Libertarian Party nominee and Green Party nominee added to the presidential contest, Biden’s lead over Trump in the Zogby Poll drops to just three points, 45 percent to 42 percent.

“Historically, support for minor party candidates dwindles as the race between major party candidates gets fierce and tight – but both candidates need to be looking over their shoulder, particularly Biden at Hawkins who may be picking up disaffected Sander’s supporters,” Zogby said.

The Emerson poll of 1,567 likely voters was conducted August 30 to August 31 and has a margin of error of 2.4 percent.

The Zogby poll of 1,007 likely voters was conducted on August 29 and has a 3.2 percent margin of error.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between Wednesday August 26 and Friday August 28 and has a 2.5 percent margin of error.


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