Report: Population Explosion in Africa Will Fuel Ongoing Migrant Crisis

The Associated Press
The Associated Press

A new analysis by the Austrian armed forces warns that Europe should be cautious about celebrating the slowdown of migration from Africa saying the numbers could be much higher in the near future.

The report, which was published in the Austrian Military Magazine (OeMZ), analyses the South Saharan-Zone in Africa (SAHEL) and concludes that due to a population explosion, limited resources, and religious extremism, a push for mass migration is increasingly likely, Kronen Zeitung reports.

The report notes that the SAHEL region has a population of around 540 million people under the age of 18, and also has the highest birthrates in the world with countries like Niger having an average rate of 7.6 children per woman.  By 2050, statisticians expect that Africa will have over 1 billion people under the age of 18, while Europe will have a mere 130 million.

The massive, uncontrolled population growth will lead to “failing states”, the author notes, and said that as a result the borders of countries in the region will become blurred.

The author also slammed the European Union’s subsidies for agricultural exports to Africa saying that they reduce the price of goods and gut local farming communities which drive more and more people into massive sprawling cities.

The inevitable stream of migrants could reach numbers in the millions, according to the report, with Europe being their most likely destination. The most impacted countries will be the southern European nations like Italy, Spain, and possibly Greece leading to potential destabilisation.

Already in Italy in 2016 thousands of Italians took to the streets of Rome to protest mass migration and the crisis has led to the surge in popularity of the Five Star Movement of which the current mayor of Rome is a member.

The Austrian report is not the first to sound an alarm regarding the future of mass migration from the African continent. Earlier this year, European Union Parliament President Antonio Tajani said as many as 30 million Africans could migrate to Europe in the coming years.

A leaked confidential report from the German security agencies claimed that there were 6.6 million migrants trying to reach Europe this year alone.

Follow Chris Tomlinson on Twitter at @TomlinsonCJ or email at ctomlinson(at) 


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