Prediction: 4 of 5 Largest Parties in Europe After Election Will Be Nationalist-Populist

(L)Italy's Interior Minister and deputy PM Matteo Salvini smiles during a press conference

Four of the five single largest parties in this week’s European Parliament elections will be nationalist-populist eurosceptics with the Brexit Party biggest of the lot, according to new seat projections from the pollsters by website EuropeElects.

The projections, which are based on the latest Europe-wide polling data collected by the website, show the Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage is likely to cause a huge upset and take the most seats of any single party on the continent with 28 elected MEPs.

The Brexit Party’s sudden rise to not only the top of the polls in Britain but also now commanding a staggering lead over the second place Liberal Democrats has meant that Mr Farage’s party now polls better than the Conservatives and the Labour Party combined.

In Europe’s second place with 25 projected MEPs is the League party led by Italian populist Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, who has made a real effort to unite the eurosceptic conservatives and the populist movement, recently holding a large-scale rally in Milan where several prominent populist leaders were present.

Salvini has also rejected working with the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who are likely to come in third place, saying that Chancellor Angela Merkel, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, had “ruined” Europe.

The conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, the ruling party in Poland, is expected to win 22 seats in the European Parliament and is well-known as being a strong ally of conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Earlier this year, Mr Salvini met with the leadership of PiS with both agreeing to some degree of cooperation.

The French populist National Rally is also looking to cause a huge upset in the election and is currently looking at a victory over the party of sitting French President Emmanuel Macron.

National Rally leader and former presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has labelled the EU vote a referendum on the presidency of Macron and said earlier this month that if his La République En Marche! (LREM/Republic on the Move) lose the election then he must resign as president.

“So it becomes a referendum for or against Emmanuel Macron, this European election. I accept that, but in these conditions, he must do as General De Gaulle: if he loses this election, then he will have to leave,” she said.

Follow Chris Tomlinson on Twitter at @TomlinsonCJ or email at ctomlinson(at)


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