A new poll claims the biggest factors for California voters — who may hold the nation’s fate in their hands — will be the 47 percent opposition to President Donald Trump’s tax cut and the 54 percent support for keeping Obamacare.
Democrats, who already hold 39 of California’s 53 congressional seats, claim that there is a “blue wave” that could knock out many of the last 14 Republican U.S. House members in the state. The latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll of California registered voters found that the two strongest issues for Democrats to run on for the November elections are promises to reverse President Trump’s Tax Cut and to preserve Affordable Care Act.
During the 2016 presidential election, the USC Dornsife/L.A. Times “Daybreak” poll was a controversial outlier compared to other polling firms for recognizing Donald Trump’s strength during the Republican nomination process and in the general election versus Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Three weeks before the election, the CalBuzz blog called thepoll a “world class flapdoodle” for calling the race a dead heat, despite polls by “reputable organizations” showing Clinton ahead by 4 to 11 percentage points.
The now closely-watched 2018 USC Dornsife/L.A. Times poll scientifically sampled 691 registered voters in the last month. With an error rate of plus or minus 4 percent, its major finding is that President Trump’s miserable 70 percent unfavorable job-performance rate in the state (compared with a 30 percent approval rate) is a millstone pulling down Republican congressional candidates in California.
Registered voters were only 9 percent much more likely, and 12 percent somewhat more likely, to support a congressional candidate that voted in favor of President Trump’s tax cut. In contrast, 37 percent would be much less likely, and 15 percent somewhat less likely, to vote for a congressional candidate who had supported the tax cut.
The poll also found that 60 percent of California’s registered voters approved of Obamacare, also known as the “Affordable Care Act.” Democrats were the most favorable toward Obamacare, along with urban and coastal residents. The poll also reportedly found that registered voters were only 13 percent much more likely, and 15 percent more likely, to support a congressional candidate who voted to overturn the Affordable Care Act. In contrast, 37 percent would be much less likely, and 17 less likely, to support a member of Congress who had voted to overturn the Affordable Care Act.