Pollster Rich Baris, Director at Big Data Poll, slammed David Wasserman’s Cook Political Report midterm predictions favoring Democrats as biased and based on his “love of flawed polls.”
Baris took Wasserman to task after he tweeted an analysis of a downgraded “outlook for GOP gains from 20-35 seats to 10-20 seats.”
“Let me shorten it so everyone doesn’t waste their time reading it,” Baris tweeted about a new Cook Report’s projection of the 2022 midterms. “Your bias bleeds into your ‘forecasts’ and love flawed polls. Peace out!”
In 2020, the Cook Political Report predicted Republicans would lose up to 15 House seats to add to their 34-seat majority, but the estimate was 29 seats off. Instead, Republicans gained 14 House seats and the Democrats entered 2021 with a narrow 222–213 House majority.
Let me shorten it so everyone doesn’t waste their time reading it.
Your bias bleeds into your “forecasts” and love flawed polls.
Peace out! https://t.co/rzdmyIRQv9
— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) August 30, 2022
Wasserman’s analysis cited Roe v. Wade being overruled by the Supreme Court and “steadily falling gas prices” as two issues the Democrats have claimed are energizing its base heading into the midterm elections.
“By our estimates, they [Republicans] are likely to pick up roughly three seats off the bat from redistricting alone, owing to New York’s top court torpedoing Democrats’ gerrymander and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signing a brutal GOP gerrymander into law,” Wasserman claimed. “That was once a tiny component of Republicans’ potential House gains. Now, it looks like a critical GOP insurance policy in a highly fluid political climate.”
Wasserman’s factors may prove themselves incorrect come November. Rasmussen Reports’ polling shows Roe v. Wade is the fourth most important issue of which voters are “very concerned.” Joe Biden’s 40-year-high inflation, soaring crime, and illegal immigration respectively ranking above the issue of abortion.
- Nevada, $3.84
- Pennsylvania, $4.10
- Ohio, $3.65
- Wisconsin, $3.84
- Georgia, $3.37
- Michigan, $3.84
- North Carolina, $3.54
Yes, post-Dobbs special elections have seen huge swings towards Dems thanks to highly-engaged college grads dominating low-turnout races. But it's dangerous to extrapolate these results to November. pic.twitter.com/48kRnpVjVo
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 30, 2022
A metric that seems to be left out of the establishment media’s midterm prediction is Biden’s low approval rating. The president’s approval rating is a bellwether for his party’s success in the midterms.
On Tuesday, Reuters found Biden’s net approval rating dropped a full seven points in one week. Reuters admitted the poll is “a poor sign for his Democratic Party’s hopes in the Nov. 8 midterm elections … despite a string of Democratic legislative victories that Biden’s allies hope will help them defend their narrow congressional majorities in November.”
Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.
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