President Donald Trump has taken the lead in Florida, according to a Trafalgar Group survey released mere days before Election Day.
The survey, taken October 25-28, among 1,088 likely general election voters, shows Trump with a 2.7 percent edge in Florida, leading former Vice President Joe Biden with 49.6 percent to 46.9 percent. With the election days away, less than one percent of voters remain undecided.
Trump’s lead is just within the survey’s +/- 2.89 percent margin of error, indicating a statistical tie:
#2020Election #BattlegroundState #FLpoll conducted 10/25-28 &released exclusively tonight on @IngrahamAngle shows growing Trump lead:
0.7% Und. See Report: https://t.co/sqfSQES0GP pic.twitter.com/Qva72lE3i1
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 30, 2020
Friday morning’s RealClearPolitics average showed Biden up by 1.2 percent in the state.
The survey comes as Republicans continue to outpace Democrats in early voting across Florida. While Democrats hold an absentee advantage of 637,912, Republicans hold an early voter advantage of 474,229. Overall, Republicans have narrowed the Democrats’ gap in ballots cast significantly in the last week. As of Friday morning, Democrats held a 163,683 advantage overall. Meanwhile, Democrats, particularly in Miami-Dade County, are sounding the alarm as Democrats are not, at this point, showing up in the volume seen in 2016 in the blue county.
Over 7.8 million voters had already cast their ballots in Florida as of Friday.