Data analytics research firm Data Orbital is estimating that President Donald Trump will carry the state of Arizona.
“This breakdown is inline with what we are estimating and why we believe @realDonaldTrump will carry AZ,” the firm tweeted Wednesday afternoon. “These ballots are heavily Republican and will break in his favor. We estimate about 500k outstanding ballots.”
Data Orbital’s tweet was in response to one by NBC News’s Vaughn Hillyard, who gave an update on the estimated number of Arizona early ballots that were still left to be processed from some counties at the time:
This breakdown is inline with what we are estimating and why we believe @realDonaldTrump will carry AZ. These ballots are heavily Republican and will break in his favor. We estimate about 500k outstanding ballots. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter #AZ https://t.co/whlhjPxpa4
— Data Orbital (@Data_Orbital) November 4, 2020
Data Orbital also stated the analysis on outstanding ballots “mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250K of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%.”
“Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump,” the firm said.
Nate Silver appeared to agree, writing:
Here's what's left to count in AZ. At first glance this would seem quite bad for Trump since it's largely mail ballots *but* mail ballots that arrived late in the process are considerably more R by party registration than the ones that arrived earlier. https://t.co/xUq65JrGPF
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
ABC News reported as well Arizona is yet undecided, as of Wednesday afternoon:
President Donald Trump is projected to take the battleground state of Florida, but Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia still hang in the balance as a possibility for former Vice President Joe Biden as of Wednesday afternoon.
…
Arizona: Arizona’s race has not yet been projected.
Why not? Arizona still has votes being counted, which officials expect to finish counting Wednesday.
The Trump campaign has pushed back against Fox News, which called Arizona for Democrat nominee Joe Biden on Tuesday evening, even though hundreds of thousands of votes were left to be counted.
Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) also pushed back against the call that his state had gone for Biden:
Not so fast. The race has narrowed in #AZ considerably. 130,000 votes separate the candidates, with hundreds of thousands of votes yet to be counted, from all over the state. I'll say it again: Let's count the votes, and let the people decide rather than making declarations. https://t.co/1WYhjChrtm
— Doug Ducey (@dougducey) November 4, 2020
Arizonans turned out in historic numbers for this election, and we owe it to them to count their votes. The results have shifted greatly hour by hour, and from last night until today. 1/2
— Doug Ducey (@dougducey) November 4, 2020
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