Data Orbital Estimates Trump Will Carry Arizona

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 04: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks on election night in the East Room of the White House in the early morning hours of November 04, 2020 in Washington, DC. Trump spoke shortly after 2am with the presidential race against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden still too …
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Data analytics research firm Data Orbital is estimating that President Donald Trump will carry the state of Arizona.

“This breakdown is inline with what we are estimating and why we believe @realDonaldTrump will carry AZ,” the firm tweeted Wednesday afternoon. “These ballots are heavily Republican and will break in his favor. We estimate about 500k outstanding ballots.”

Data Orbital’s tweet was in response to one by NBC News’s Vaughn Hillyard, who gave an update on the estimated number of Arizona early ballots that were still left to be processed from some counties at the time:

Data Orbital also stated the analysis on outstanding ballots “mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250K of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%.”

“Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump,” the firm said.

Nate Silver appeared to agree, writing:

ABC News reported as well Arizona is yet undecided, as of Wednesday afternoon:

President Donald Trump is projected to take the battleground state of Florida, but Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia still hang in the balance as a possibility for former Vice President Joe Biden as of Wednesday afternoon.

Arizona: Arizona’s race has not yet been projected.
Why not? Arizona still has votes being counted, which officials expect to finish counting Wednesday.

The Trump campaign has pushed back against Fox News, which called Arizona for Democrat nominee Joe Biden on Tuesday evening, even though hundreds of thousands of votes were left to be counted.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) also pushed back against the call that his state had gone for Biden:


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