House Republicans Release Plan to Retake Majority: 47 Target Districts with Vulnerable Democrats

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 02: U.S. House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks at a press conference on Capitol Hill on July 02, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

U.S. House Republicans released a detailed breakdown of 47 Democrat-held districts they intend to target in November 2022 in their quest to retake the majority from Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) laid out in a memo how the GOP is only five seats away from a majority in the House, and explained it believes Republicans can be competitive in 47 districts Democrats currently hold. Technically, given redistricting will see several changes to congressional district lines and the move of some districts either into or out of certain states around the country, this map may and probably will change some when those new districts are set in stone later this year. But for now, the fact that Republicans are already laser focused on retaking the lower chamber of Congress has to warm some hearts on the right of depressed GOP base voters who saw Democrats sweep into power in both chambers of Congress and the White House in November 2022.

The memo, titled “Path to a Republican Majority,” is from NRCC executive director John Billings to “interested parties” and opens by celebrating GOP pickups which defied oddsmakers, pollsters, and prognosticators across the board. Despite other issues in some Senate races and at the White House level, House Republicans actually blew away expectations, picking up more than a dozen seats in November when most political experts in Washington projected them to lose as many as five to ten or more.

“After a successful 2020 cycle — where House Republicans flipped 15 seats and elected a historically diverse class — Republicans are just five seats short of a majority and are strongly positioned to flip the House in 2022,” Billings wrote.

The memo continues by arguing that the “socialist agenda” from Pelosi and President Joe Biden that Democrats are seeing “forced” upon Americans — from Biden’s anti-jobs executive orders to “throwing bipartisanship out the window” — along with Pelosi’s and House Democrats’ decision to focus on conspiracy theories is causing several House Democrats to plan their exits from Congress because “they know the majority is at risk.”

“Since WWII, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections,” Billings wrote. “With full control of the federal government, House Democrats will be held responsible for their socialist agenda and efforts to increase the government’s involvement in every aspect of voters’ lives.”

“To maintain their majority, House Democrats will need to defy history and defend policies toxic to hardworking Americans. To hold Democrats accountable for their socialist agenda, the NRCC is strategically targeting at least 47 vulnerable Democrat members in 2022,” he continued. “These 47 offensive targets are broken down into three categories: Battleground, Underperforming Democrats and Redistricting Watch.”

To take the majority back in November 2022 in the midterm elections, Republicans need to flip a net six seats — they are five away from the majority — so historical trends combined with redistricting sending several extra districts to red states like Texas, Florida, Montana, and more would suggest Republicans are in prime position to pull that off.

Of the 47 target Democrats in trouble according to the NRCC memo, the party committee breaks it down into three categories. “There are 29 Battleground Democrats that include seven districts President Biden lost or where the 2020 presidential or congressional margin was within 5%,” Billings wrote. “Next, there are 8 Underperforming Democrats, who won by less than 10% and underperformed the presidential ballot margin. Finally, there are 10 Redistricting Watch Democrats, who currently represent districts in states gaining or losing seats during the reapportionment or have a redistricting commission.”

The GOP, the memo says, has an advantage in these seats in polling and among undecided voters. “NRCC polling data from the 2020 cycle in these 47 seats shows Democrats hold just a one-point advantage on the generic ballot,” Billings wrote. “Additionally, among those seats, undecided voters lean Republican by three points.”

According to the NRCC memo, the 29 “Battleground Democrats” are the core targets for Republicans to flip seats. “The list includes members where Joe Biden lost their district in 2020, several who underperformed the top of the ticket and four newly added members who were not targeted last cycle,” the memo says of these ones.

Underperforming Democrats, meanwhile, are ones the NRCC has identified as those “who won by less than 10% and underperformed the presidential ballot.” There are eight of those, the memo says, and “[o]f those eight, seven were targeted last cycle.” The remaining 10 districts, titled in the memo “Redistricting Watch” seats, are ones the NRCC believes present “opportunities for Republicans to defeat Democrats in states that will lose or gain seats after redistricting” adding that the “list includes two new targets from last cycle as well as four Democrats in states that are losing seats in which the incumbent underperformed the top of the ticket.”

The 47 House Democrats under fire are as follows:

The Battleground Democrats (29):

  • Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ)
  • Rep. Josh Harder (D-CA)
  • Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL)
  • Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA)
  • Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA)
  • Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL)
  • Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL)
  • Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME)
  • Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI)
  • Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI)
  • Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN)
  • Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ)
  • Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ)
  • Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ)
  • Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV)
  • Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV)
  • Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR)
  • Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA)
  • Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA)
  • Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA)
  • Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-TX)
  • Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX)
  • Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX)
  • Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX)
  • Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA)
  • Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA)
  • Rep. Kim Schrier (D-WA)
  • Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI)

Underperforming Democrats (8):

  • Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA)
  • Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA)
  • Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA)
  • Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL)
  • Rep. Sharice Davids (D-KS)
  • Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH)
  • Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR)
  • Rep. Collin Allred (D-TX)

Redistricting Watch (10):

  • Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ)
  • Rep. John Garamendi (D-CA)
  • Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-CT)
  • Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL)
  • Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN)
  • Rep. Deborah Ross (D-NC)
  • Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ)
  • Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY)
  • Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)
  • Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY)

The document concludes by arguing the GOP has a “clear path” back to the majority in two years, and could very well build a historically large majority by starting this close to the finish line.

“Republicans have a clear path back to the majority. President Biden, Speaker Pelosi and House Democrats will continue to push a radical, partisan agenda that is too extreme for middle-class families,” Billings wrote. “The NRCC enters this cycle with more net cash on hand than the DCCC, and House Republicans are fully prepared to bring the fight to House Democrats. With a proven record of strong candidate recruitment, aggressive messaging and the necessary resources, Republicans will win back the House in 2022.”

NRCC chairman Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) will appear on Breitbart News Saturday on SiriusXM 125 the Patriot Channel this weekend to discuss this memo and the GOP’s path back to the majority.

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