Poll: Trump Leads Biden in Key Swing State of Pennsylvania

SCHNECKSVILLE, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 13: Republican presidential candidate, former Presiden
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Former President Donald Trump is edging out President Joe Biden in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, a recent Marist Poll found.

The survey, taken June 3-6, 2024, following the Manhattan jury’s controversial guilty verdict in Trump’s business records trial, shows Trump edging Biden out by two points in the Keystone State. The former president garners 47 percent support to Biden’s 45 percent.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. comes in a distant third place with three percent support, while one percent go for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, one percent go for Cornel West, and less than one percent go for Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. Another two percent remain undecided.

The survey also found Trump edging out Biden among independent voters in Pennsylvania with 42 percent support to Biden’s 40 percent support. Eight percent of independents go for Kennedy, followed by three percent for West and three percent for Stein.

Marist Poll noted that Biden had the advantage among independents in the Keystone State in 2020 by an eight-point margin.

It also found that Biden’s support among black voters and young voters is slipping:

While still strong, Biden has lost his formidable support among Black voters. 68% break for Biden to 23% for Trump. Biden handily won the support of most Black voters in the 2020 presidential election, 92% to 7% for Trump.

Biden has lost support among voters under the age of 45. Biden (46%) and Trump (44%) are competitive. Biden carried this age group by 24 percentage points in 2020. Yet, Trump’s advantage among older voters has evaporated. He carried voters 45 or older by 12 percentage points in 2020. Now, three percentage points separate Trump (48%) and Biden (45%) among this group.

Another takeaway from the survey is the fact that a majority of Pennsylvania voters, 54 percent, believe their lives were better off during Trump’s presidency than during Biden’s.

The survey was taken among 1,181 registered voters. It has a +/- 3.6 percent margin of error and coincides with several other polls showing states that had tipped for Biden are now trending Trump. For instance, a recent survey from McLaughlin & Associates shows Trump leading Biden in blue Minnesota. That is significant, as the state has not gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, when Republican Richard Nixon defeated Democrat George McGovern.

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