A new CNN data analysis finds that Republican gains among black voters have modestly increased while Democrats maintain a sizable but reduced advantage, reflecting shifts in approval ratings and party identification margins compared to earlier benchmarks.
CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten, speaking in a recent CNN report, detailed what he described as a continuing trend in which President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are improving their standing among black voters relative to previous benchmarks. According to Enten, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans has increased from 12 percent at a comparable point in his first term to 16 percent currently, reflecting what he characterized as incremental gains
Enten said, “President Trump and the Republican Party are chipping away at the long-term advantage that Democrats have had with black voters, with African Americans,” adding, “He’s gaining, he’s gaining ground with African Americans.” He noted that Republicans view the shift as significant given the historical strength of Democratic support within that demographic.
The analysis also pointed to broader partisan identification trends. During Trump’s first term, Democrats held a 63-point advantage in party identification among African Americans. Enten reported that this margin has since narrowed by approximately 12 points, marking what he described as the smallest Democratic advantage in Gallup’s recorded data spanning from 2006 to 2021, citing both approval ratings and party identification data.
Enten further emphasized potential electoral implications, particularly in competitive regions. He referenced Southern states such as Georgia, where even modest shifts in voter alignment could influence close races. He said that this movement “could have major ramifications and could help put Republicans over the top in a number of Southern places in the midterm elections.”
The CNN analyst also revisited the 2024 election cycle, describing Trump’s performance among black voters as historically strong for a Republican candidate, while Democrats experienced their weakest showing with that group in a generation. Pre-election polling at the time showed then-Vice President Kamala Harris leading among African American voters by 63 points. Current data, according to Enten, shows a similar margin of 62 points, indicating that Democrats have not regained ground lost during that cycle.
“Republicans are holding on to the gains that they made among African Americans in 2024,” Enten said, concluding that “the Donald Trump-led Republican Party is making gains among African Americans that we, simply put, have not seen the Republican Party make in a generation.”
These developments come as election-related issues remain in focus nationwide. On April 29, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Louisiana v. Callais that a race-based redistricting map in Louisiana constituted an unconstitutional gerrymander. Writing for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito stated that while Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act can, when properly understood, provide a compelling reason for considering race in redistricting, it did not justify Louisiana’s use of race in this case and could not support the map at issue.
The ruling drew responses from several prominent Democrats. Former President Barack Obama said the decision “effectively guts a key pillar of the Voting Rights Act,” while former Vice President Kamala Harris stated that it “turns back the clock on the foundational promise of equality and fairness in our election systems.” New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said the ruling “risks disenfranchising millions of Americans along racial lines,” as multiple Democratic figures argued the decision could weaken protections for minority voters.
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