Polls: Donald Trump Holds Comfortable Leads over Caucus Field, Joe Biden in Iowa

Former President Donald Trump speaks in Clinton Township, Mich., Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023
Mike Mulholland/AP

Former President Donald Trump owns a 38-point lead over his nearest competitor in the Iowa caucus field and a 10-point lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical general election in the Hawkeye State, according to a pair of polls. 

A Civiqs/Iowa State University poll published on Thursday shows Trump with 55 percent support among “likely Republican Caucus attendees in Iowa,” marking a 4-point surge since September. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) sits in second place with 17 percent backing him, a three percent increase in support compared to the September Civiqs/Iowa State University GOP caucus poll.

Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) also registers in double-digits with eleven percent backing, followed by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) at five percent and four percent, respectively. 

From there, former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and businessman Ryan Binkley tie at two percent, followed by Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) and former Vice President Mike Pence, who garner one percent apiece. 

The poll also gauged respondents’ second-choice candidates, finding that DeSantis leads the way in this regard with 22 percent. Haley is the second choice for 18 percent of respondents, while 16 percent see Ramaswamy in this light. Another 13 percent view Scott as their backup plan, while Trump, who takes the lion’s share of first-choice responses, registers at 8 percent. 

Civivqs sampled 425 likely GOP caucus attendees from October 6–10, and the margin of error is plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. 

In another independent poll, released on Friday morning by Emerson College polling, Trump holds a ten-point lead over Biden in a hypothetical general election match-up. The 45th president takes 44 percent of the response to Biden’s 34 percent among 464 Iowa voters. Another 12 percent of poll participants would back another candidate, while 11 percent are undecided. 

Emerson College Polling asked Biden and Trump supporters if there is anything the candidates “could do or say in the next several months that would make you choose not to support” them. 

Just under one in five members of both populations say “yes” they could do or say something to change their mind. Conversely, 57 percent of Trump supporters said he could not do or say anything that would make them not support him, while 41 percent of Biden voters said the same of him. 

The Iowa Republican caucuses are set to take place in January 2024.

The credibility interval in the Emerson poll registers at plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, and the samples were collected from October 1–4. 


Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting.