Mike Flynn

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Articles by Mike Flynn

Dembacle: Dem Redistricting Plans Falter in Illinois

In 2010, GOP candidates for federal office had a banner year in Illinois. The GOP picked up 4 House seats and a U.S. Senate seat in President Obama’s adopted home state. State party GOP candidates fared less well, however. The

Dembacle: Dem Redistricting Plans Falter in Illinois

In 2008, Obama Led Every October Poll

With just over three weeks to go, President Obama finds himself in a very unfamiliar position. He is losing in many national and state polls. In fact, this week, Romney pulled ahead in the widely-cited RealClearPolitics average of polls. He

In 2008, Obama Led Every October Poll

Florida Moving Away from Obama

Florida has had a starring role in presidential elections since 2000. Bush won it that year by a few hundred votes. It was heavily contested again in 2004, but Bush carried it by 5 points, better than he did nationally.

Florida Moving Away from Obama

BLS Fail: Jobless Claims Number Doesn't Include California

I didn’t buy into the idea last week that the Labor Department “cooked the books” on the September jobs report. If you were going to go to the trouble of fixing the numbers, wouldn’t you come up with good numbers

BLS Fail: Jobless Claims Number Doesn't Include California

Doping: Marist Juices Numbers to Help Obama

Never in my life have I seen such obvious, blatant and one-sided skewing of media polls. I’ve noted before that the media have weaponized polling this election, using their voter surveys to buoy the struggling Obama campaign. Marist and Quinnipiac

Doping: Marist Juices Numbers to Help Obama

Biden Challenge: Keep Down-Ballot Dems From Jumping Ship

I have cautioned Republicans that we shouldn’t get too excited about Thursday’s VP debate. Yes, Paul Ryan has forgotten more about the federal budget than Joe Biden ever knew. But, sometimes, having too much knowledge can trip you up in

Biden Challenge: Keep Down-Ballot Dems From Jumping Ship

Media Plan to Trip Ryan on Foreign Policy Backfires

I raised an eyebrow when the specifics of the Presidential debates were announced back in July. Sure, I expected the regular gaggle of liberal journalists participating in the debate as “moderators.” But what caught my attention was the announcement that

Media Plan to Trip Ryan on Foreign Policy Backfires

Obama: The 'Tech Bubble' Candidate

For my first professional job after college, I didn’t have a cell phone or e-mail. I only occasionally used a computer, accessing a crude spreadsheet program through an MS/DOS prompt. I mention this to say I had a front-row seat

Obama: The 'Tech Bubble' Candidate

Breach: Two Blue States Become Competitive

Almost every presidential election provides its own “October Surprise.” A state or two that no one thought was competitive suddenly comes into play. Which states come into play can tell you a lot about the underlying trends of the race.

Breach: Two Blue States Become Competitive

How Much of Obama's $181 Million September Haul Was Illegal?

The Obama campaign released news on Saturday morning of a holiday weekend, that it had raised a massive $181 million in September. It’s a staggering sum heading into the final month of campaigning. It almost equals his fundraising for July

How Much of Obama's $181 Million September Haul Was Illegal?

Obama Campaign Has No Security to Bar Illegal Foreign Donations

Las week, I noted that the Obama campaign was bragging that it was closing in on the 10 millionth donation to its reelection efforts. It was a clear sign that, this year, they were surpassing their record-breaking haul of on-line

Obama Campaign Has No Security to Bar Illegal Foreign Donations

Democrat Turnout Lagging 2008

The media polls showing Obama with a solid and consistent lead over Mitt Romney are only accurate IF the democrats equal or improve the turnout they had in 2008. That year, the Democrats had a 7 point advantage over the

Democrat Turnout Lagging 2008

Surge: Romney Gains 4 in Rasmussen Tracking

Prior to Wednesday’s first presidential debate, Obama held a consistent 2-3 point lead in Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll. Today’s tracking poll, however, shows that the race has flipped, with Romney now holding a 2 point lead over Obama, 49-47. This

Surge: Romney Gains 4 in Rasmussen Tracking

Beware the Diminishing Returns from Wonks in Debates

Mitt Romney’s epic takedown of President Obama in Wednesday night’s debate has increased GOP enthusiasm for next week’s clash between Paul Ryan and Joe Biden. Ever since his selection as Romney’s running mate, GOP voters have relished Ryan’s expected mauling

Beware the Diminishing Returns from Wonks in Debates

Politico: Romney Up 4 in 'Toss Up' States

This week, Politico released its latest Battleground poll of the presidential race. Despite coming from the left-wing news site, the poll is one of my favorites. Its put together by respected pollsters from both parties, makes available its full cross-tabs

Politico: Romney Up 4 in 'Toss Up' States

Obama Campaign Suppressing Early Vote in Florida

The Obama campaign arm, Organizing for America, is telling voters in Pasco County, Florida that early voting starts today. Early voting in Florida doesn’t start until October 27th. The thousands of robo-calls and door-to-door outreach from the Obama campaign, however,

Obama Campaign Suppressing Early Vote in Florida

Obama Urges Companies to Break Federal Law for His Reelection

For Obama and the left, the law is merely a suggestion for what they can do. Can’t get something through Congress? Simply issue an executive order. Can’t get an appointment through the Senate? Simply “declare” the Senate in recess and

Obama Urges Companies to Break Federal Law for His Reelection

WaPo Crafts Headline From Poll With 8% Margin of Error

My colleague, John Nolte, has already covered how absurd the Washington Post poll of voters in “swing states” was. For the last few months, I have become convinced that the media is actively trying to use their polls to impact the

WaPo Crafts Headline From Poll With 8% Margin of Error

90% of US Households Face Huge Tax Hike Next Year

On November 7th, while cleaning crews are still tidying up from election night parties, America’s political class will be hurling themselves into another essential battle over government spending, taxes and debt. On January 2nd, 2013, absent some kind of budget

90% of US Households Face Huge Tax Hike Next Year

Gallup: Obama Approval Back to Pre-DNC Convention Level

Gallup’s daily tracking poll this afternoon finds 47% of adults approve of the job Obama’s doing while 46% disapprove. This represents a 5 point drop in Obama’s approval rating since the end of the Democrat convention in early September. As

Gallup: Obama Approval Back to Pre-DNC Convention Level

Polls Show Romney Gaining Ground, Winning Independents

The final act of the presidential campaign opens today with two new polls showing the race between Obama and Romney tightening. New polls, released this morning, from ABC/WaPo and Politico both show Obama’s lead nationally has been cut to two

Polls Show Romney Gaining Ground, Winning Independents

On-Line Jackpot: Obama Nears 10 Millionth Donation

This weekend, in advance of tonight’s deadline for 3rd Quarter fundraising, the Obama campaign said it was on track to reach an impressive milestone for the year; its 10 millionth donation. Going into this weekend, more than 9,700,000 separate donations

On-Line Jackpot: Obama Nears 10 Millionth Donation

Storm Clouds: The Looming Obama Recession

In 2009, 5 months after Obama was sworn into office, the US economy officially lifted itself out of recession. The depth of the recession, surpassed only by The Great Depression, should have produced, by historical experience, a rapid and strong

Storm Clouds: The Looming Obama Recession

Voters Turned Off by Obama's Lies, Cover-up on Libya

Attempts by the Obama Administration to obfuscate and misdirect over the horrible tragedy in Libya are falling apart. As my colleague John Nolte noted, even Democrats on Capitol Hill are demanding answers and a fuller explanation over events surrounding the

Voters Turned Off by Obama's Lies, Cover-up on Libya

Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008

In July, I started to notice something funky about the media polls. Almost all of them were using polling samples that assumed a dramatic increase in Democrat turnout over 2008. Even though the liberal group Third Way had found that

Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008

Obama Struggle with Independents Shows Quinnipiac's Bias

Quinnipiac University may have found an absurd number of Democrats for its CBS/NYT’s commissioned poll of three swing states, but that can’t hide an unmistakeable fact; Obama is losing Independents. Even Quinnipiac’s juiced poll shows Obama losing independents to Romney

Obama Struggle with Independents Shows Quinnipiac's Bias

CBS Poll: Quinnipiac Ignores GOP Enthusiasm Edge

This morning, my colleague John Nolte pointed out the ridiculous Democrat turnout assumptions in Quinnipiac University’s latest poll for CBS/NYT. To believe Quinnipiac’s numbers, we’d have to believe that Democrat turnout will not only increase over 2008, but reach levels

CBS Poll: Quinnipiac Ignores GOP Enthusiasm Edge

Media Polls: The Newest Negative Campaign Ad

Over the years, I’ve generally had little patience when partisans make the “polls are wrong” argument. I’ve usually found it to be the last refuge of campaigns which were clearly struggling. Sure, individual polls can be wrong, and some can

Media Polls: The Newest Negative Campaign Ad

Early Voting Tears America's Civic Fabric

In a society accustomed to Netflix, DVR and video-on-demand, its probably not surprising we’re moving towards elections-on-demand. Today, half the states have started early voting for the November elections. The remaining states will make early voting available over the coming

Early Voting Tears America's Civic Fabric

President Obama's Horrible September

What color is the sky in the political media’s world? Each week this month has begun with some variation of “Romney is doomed.” We’ve had rabid amplification of Romney “gaffes” interspersed with the traditional “campaign infighting” stories. There has also

President Obama's Horrible September

So We Raise Taxes on the Rich; Then What?

Ask President Obama or, really, any random liberal about the deficit and their answer will make heavy use of the words “Bush,” “rich,” and “tax cuts.” The left has constructed a narrative that our fiscal house is in disarray because,

So We Raise Taxes on the Rich; Then What?

IL Dem Candidate Brad Schneider: America's Smallest Small Businessman

Brad Schneider is the Democrat candidate for Illinois’ 10th Congressional District. He is challenging freshman Rep. Bob Dold. A central theme of Schneider’s campaign is his experience in the business world, specifically as a small business owner. It’s a shrewd

IL Dem Candidate Brad Schneider: America's Smallest Small Businessman

Gallup: 60% of Americans Don't Trust Mainstream Media

Gallup is out this morning with a new poll that contains a damning indictment of the mainstream media. 60% of Americans, an all-time high, do not trust the mass media to accurately or fairly report the news. Mind you, that

Gallup: 60% of Americans Don't Trust Mainstream Media

Did Marquette U Juice Its Poll for Global Warming?

Last night, I reported that Marquette University had overturned an entire year’s worth of its polling and changed the partisan sample for its latest poll from D+2-4 to D+11. Its a massive change in a partisan sample from one month.

Did Marquette U Juice Its Poll for Global Warming?

Gallup: Obama Support Dropping

Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll today continues a trend we’ve seen over the last week; Obama’s support is quickly falling back to levels seen last month. The media is furiously spinning a narrative that the Romney campaign is in trouble, but

Gallup: Obama Support Dropping