The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecaste moved up on Thursday to indicate the economy growing at a 4.8 percent pace in the second quarter.
GDPNow is a running forecast of the rate of growth of the economy, changing in real-time as new economic data are released. The forecast was pushed up Thursday by new data from the U.S. Census Bureau showing increased real personal expenditures.
The GDPNow forecast is not always on target. It differs from the forecasts of other economists and even other Federal Reserve forecasting models. The median Blue Chip forecast, compiled by averaging the GDP forecasts of major business economists, is around 3.5 percent. The New York Fed’s Nowcast, which has not been updated since Friday, is at 3 percent. It is expected to rise when updated tomorrow.
Nonetheless, the model is thought to get more accurate as the data builds and the end of the quarter approaches. The latest figure comes about two weeks before the end of the second quarter.