SUNDAY 10AM: As I first reported Friday night, Clint Eastwood is king this weekend at the box office, and although Gran Torino (Warner Bros) didn’t quite reach $30M, its final 3-day studio estimate of $29M is still easily the best of his storied career. (Scroll down to read my Friday story.) The commercial success of what may be Eastwood’s final acting performance has definitely changed the dynamics of the Best Actor race. Clint now has a real shot at his third Best Actor nomination, despite being snubbed by both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards.
The rest of the final studio figures are essentially as I reported Friday. For new readers at Big Hollywood, I publish two different kinds of numbers. Usually on Wednesday or Thursday, I write a prediction column. During the week, I have regular conversations with studio execs, get some analysis on pre-release industry tracking (audience surveys) and develop a feel for how movies may perform based on my years as an exhibitor.
Predictions are just that. Well-educated guesses. I think I have a pretty good batting average on my predictions, but I subscribe to William Goldman’s old show biz adage, “Nobody knows anything.” I can be off and sometimes dead wrong.
But, when I publish numbers on Friday night, they are projections. This week is a good example. My Friday night projections all match today’s studio estimates within a few percentage points. Projections are based on conversations with key sources who have access to early raw sales data, and we are able to plug those figures into a model to establish Early Friday & 3-Day Estimates. When you read my Friday night column here, you can basically take those numbers to the bank.
FINAL STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $29.02M, $10,337 PTA, $40M cume
2. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) – $21.5M, $6,665 PTA, $21.5M cume
3. NEW – The Unborn (Rogue) – $21.09M, $8,950 PTA, $21.09M cume
3. Marley & Me (Fox) – $11.35M, $3,263 PTA, $123.7M cume
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $9.45M, $3,207 PTA, $94.33M cume
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $8.55M, $2,435 PTA, $97.18M cume
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) – $6.66M, $2,347 PTA, $71.5M cume
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $6.15M, $2,083 PTA, $89.4M cume
9. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) – $5.6M, $7,735 PTA, $5.6M cume
10. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $3.9M, $1,588 PTA, $66.83M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.73M, $6,206 PTA, $34.07M cume
12. Twilight (Summit) – $2.78M, $1,902 PTA, $181.39M cume
13. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $2.64M, $1,150 PTA, $47.49M cume
14. Doubt (Miramax) – $2.5M, $1,945 PTA, $22.94M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks Paramount) – $1.44M, $10,667 PTA, $3.17M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) – $1.35M, $2,667 PTA, $5.51M cume
*Milk (Focus) – $1.25M, $4,241 PTA, $19.12M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $912,000, $4,449 PTA, $7.65M cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $874,000, $14,567 PTA, $2.84M cume
*Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – $151,000, $9,438 PTA, $541,000 cume
*Waltz With Bashir (Sony Classics) – $80,900, $10,113 PTA, $364,000 cume
*Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $66,000, $33,000 PTA, $307,000 cume
UPDATED SATURDAY 10AM: Clint Eastwood may have saved his biggest for last.
If Gran Torino (Warner Bros) is, as he has hinted, his final big screen acting role, he is going out on top. The 78-year-old multi-Oscar winning director has the #1 movie in America, and the biggest opening of his career.
Gran Torino, the redemptive story of a racist Korean War veteran named Walt Kowalski, has expanded to just over 2,800 playdates with an estimated $9.65M Friday. That puts the modestly budgeted film on target for a possible $30M wide opening, easily the biggest of the screen legend’s career. (As of Saturday morning, it appears that Gran Torino may fall just short of $30M for the weekend.)
ALL-TIME BEST CLINT EASTWOOD OPENINGS
– wide release –
1. Gran Torino – $30M (projected)
2. Space Cowboys – $18.09M
3. In the Line of Fire – $15.2M
4. Unforgiven – $15M
5. Absolute Power – $14.6M
Novice screenwriter Nick Schenk managed to get a copy of Gran Torino into Eastwood’s hands and the legendary actor/director/composer decided to star in and direct the movie without changing a word of dialogue. Including a spectacular platform performance over the holidays, Torino will have banked about $40M by Monday morning. Will this commercial success lift Eastwood to his third Best Actor nomination at this year’s Oscars?
Any hopes of Eastwood snagging a Best Director nomination dissipated this week when he was not nominated for the DGA Award. (He had, in my estimation, only a fleeting chance at scoring for Changeling.) With the five Best Picture nominees all but locked up – Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Frost/Nixon, Milk and The Dark Knight – both of his 2008 movies are locked out. He has a chance at an acting nod, but it still may be uphill despite his new blockbuster status.
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) and Sean Penn (Milk) are sure things. That leaves Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button), Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road), Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) and Eastwood for the last two nominations. For me, it’s hard to watch the movie and not be awed by this man’s whole career. Despite being snubbed by the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, I don’t think Eastwood should be counted out of the Best Actor race yet. (Even if Clint misses out here, he will almost certainly be nominated for Best Original Song. The title song was co-written with son Kyle and jazz vocalist Jamie Cullum, and it is as catchy as it is haunting.)
Finishing second, in line with industry expectations, is Bride Wars (Fox), produced by and starring Kate Hudson. The movie has grabbed about $8.1M on opening day and should reach $22.68M or so by Sunday night. Hudson recruited soon-to-be-Oscar nominee Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) to co-headline this horribly-reviewed comedy (12% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Directed by Gary Winick, who once upon a time delivered smart comedies like 2002’s Tadpole and the Jennifer Garner high concept vehicle 13 Going on 30 back in 2004, Bride Wars, on the surface, seems out of step with the times.
Given the current economic climate, it’s interesting that a movie about shallow consumerism would connect this well, especially with Under 25’s. Then again, this is a generation fascinated by the meanness of MTV’s The Hills, where girls are portrayed as selfish, scheming and materialistic. That is what probably puts Bride Wars in the proverbial “cultural wheelhouse.”
It’s been a longtime since Hudson received her lone Oscar nomination (Best Supporting Actress for Almost Famous in 2000), but she has proven herself as a go-to young star. Bride Wars is a huge improvement over the $8.26M opening for September’s My Best Friend’s Girl, and it ranks as her all-time second-best 3-day start.
ALL-TIME KATE HUDSON OPENINGS
1. How To Lose a Guy in 10 Days – $23.7M opening [$105.8M cume]
2. Bride Wars – $21.28M opening (projected)
3. Fool’s Gold – $21.5M opening [$70.2M cume]
3. You, Me & Dupree – $21.5M opening [$75.6M cume]
5. The Skeleton Key – $16M opening [$47.9M cume]
The Unborn (Rogue), written and directed by David S. Goyer, has outperformed industry expectations. With Gary Oldman, The Wire‘s excellent Idris Elba and Jane Alexander as the only recognizable names on the marquee, the cheaply-made genre pic managed a very strong $8.2M (#2 for the day) and will likely scare up $19.68M by Monday morning, good for third place.
Platinum Dunes, headed by Tranformers director Michael Bay, produced The Unborn, and it is the latest in their string of low budget horror pics including the remake of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre ($28M opening – $80.5M cume), the remake of The Amityville Horror ($23.5M opening – $65.2M cume), Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning ($18.5M opening – $39.5M cume) and the remake of The Hitcher ($7.8M opening – $16.4M cume). To Rogue and Platinum Dunes’ credit, they did screen The Unborn for critics, but the reviews have been anything but rave (14% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes).
The overall #4 movie for the weekend is the holiday box office champion Marley & Me (Fox), which fetched another $3.24M Friday for a possible $11.34M third weekend. That will push the lovable lab to almost $124M domestic. If that number holds, the David Frankel-directed adaptation of John Grogan’s memoir will be down a steeper-than-expected 53% from the post-New Year’s weekend.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) rounds out the top five with an estimated $3M Friday. David Fincher’s epic-in-reverse should sweep up another $10.5M in receipts this weekend for a new domestic cume of just over $95M. Paramount could get a huge boost from multiple Ben Button wins at Sunday night’s Golden Globes.
The other wide release is Sony’s Not Easily Broken, a well-meaning, faith-based urban drama with lukewarm reviews (37% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) starring possible Oscar nominee Taraji P. Henson (for Benjamin Button). Directed by Bill Duke and released on just 724 screens, this one clearly has a solid, inner city church-based marketing plan, grabbing $2M on Friday and a surprising $5.8M opening weekend for an excellent $8,000 Per Theatre Average.
For the second consecutive weekend, the top Per Theatre Average belongs to the Holocaust-era drama Defiance (Paramount Vantage), directed by Edward Zwick (Glory, Blood Diamond). The picture will go wide next weekend, but, in the meantime, it wrangled $15K on Friday in its two playdates, and the Daniel Craig/Liev Schrieber/Jamie Bell starrer will finish the frame with about $55K for a $27,500 PTA.
Mickey Rourke’s career defining performance in The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) continue to sell well. Directed by Darren Aronofsky, the auteur behind Requiem for a Dream, the film expanded to 48 locations this week, and Searchlight’s slow and nurturing platform release is paying dividends. The Wrestler added $300,000 to start the weekend, and will likely sneak past $1M for the weekend. That would represent a PTA of just under $23K and a new cume of exceeding $3M. Many of the awards pundits seem to be leaning toward Sean Penn at Sunday’s HFPA gala, but, as I wrote earlier in the week, I like Rourke to win the Golden Globe for Best Actor – Drama. If that hunch is right, this little indie could really hit box office paydirt.
Sam Mendes’ excellent Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks/Paramount) has expanded to 135 locations and generated $425,000 or so in ticket sales. The Leonardo DiCaprio/Kate Winslet period drama seems headed for a possible $1.5M by Monday morning for a Per Theatre Average of just over $11,000. That number is very good, but not great. A Best Actress win for Winslet at the Golden Globes would give this one a huge boost as it goes wider in the next few weeks.
Among other specialty and awards caliber limited releases, Last Chance Harvey (Overture) and Waltz With Bashir (Sony Classics) both appear to be targeting weekend Per Theatre Averages in the $9K range. Harvey, featuring the Golden Globe nominated performances of Oscar winners Dustin Hoffman and Emma Thompson, added ten locations on Friday, and its 3-day should be about $150,000. Bashir, which seems certain to win Best Foreign Language Film at the Globes, picked up just three more playdates, to eight in all, and the animated foreign language doc should generate just over $70K in receipts.
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $9.65M, $3,437 PTA, $20.69M cume
2. NEW – The Unborn (Rogue) – $8.2M, $3,480 PTA, $8.2M cume
3. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) – $8.1M, $2,511 PTA, $2.1M cume
4. Marley & Me (Fox) – $3.24M, $932 PTA, $115.6M cume
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $3M, $1,018 PTA, $87.87M cume
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $2.2M, $627 PTA, $90.82M cume
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) – $2.15M, $758 PTA, $67M cume
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $2M, $677 PTA, $85.25M cume
8. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) – $2M, $2,762 PTA, $2M cume
10. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $1.3M, $529 PTA, $64.23M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.05M, $1,747 PTA, $31.39M cume
12. Twilight (Summit) – $925,000, $631 PTA, $179.53M cume
13. Doubt (Miramax) – $810,000, $629 PTA, $21.24M cume
14. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $640,000, $272 PTA, $45.49M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks Paramount) – $425,000, $3,148 PTA, $2.15M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) – $375,000, $740 PTA, $4.53M cume
*Milk (Focus) – $365,000, $1,237 PTA, $18.23M cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $300,000, $6,250 PTA, $2.27M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $260,000, $1,268 PTA, $7M cume
*Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – $45,600, $2,850 PTA, $436,000 cume
*Waltz With Bashir (Sony Classics) – $20,000, $2,500 PTA, $202,000 cume
*Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $15,000, $7,500 PTA, $256,000 cume
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $30M, $10,684 PTA, $41M cume
2. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) – $22.68M, $7,030 PTA, $22.68M cume
3. NEW – The Unborn (Rogue) – $19.68M, $8,353 PTA, $19.68M cume
3. Marley & Me (Fox) – $11.34M, $3,260 PTA, $123.7M cume
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $10.5M, $3,563 PTA, $95.37M cume
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $8.36M, $2,381 PTA, $96.98M cume
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) – $6.88M, $2,424 PTA, $71.72M cume
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $6.5M, $2,200 PTA, $89.75M cume
9. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) – $5.8M, $8,011 PTA, $5.8M cume
10. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $4.29M, $1,747 PTA, $67.22M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.78M, $6,290 PTA, $34.12M cume
12. Doubt (Miramax) – $2.95M, $2,297 PTA, $23.39M cume
13. Twilight (Summit) – $2.86M, $1,956 PTA, $181.47M cume
14. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $2.56M, $1,087 PTA, $47.41M cume
*Revolutionary Road (Dreamworks Paramount) – $1.5M, $11,176 PTA, $3.23M cume
*The Reader (Weinstein) – $1.36M, $2,700 PTA, $5.53M cume
*Milk (Focus) – $1.33M, $4,516 PTA, $19.2M cume
*The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) – $1.09M, $22,813 PTA, $3.06M cume
*Frost/Nixon (Universal) – $962,000, $4,693 PTA, $7.7M cume
*Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – $152,000, $9,500 PTA, $542,000 cume
*Waltz With Bashir (Sony Classics) – $73,000, $9,125 PTA, $255,000 cume
*Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $55,000, $27,500 PTA, $296,000 cume
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
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