Nearly one year on since voters delivered a 52/48 per cent vote in favour of leaving the European Union, support for remaining in the bloc has plummeted to 22 per cent.
Analysis by the Financial Times suggests, ahead of the general election on June 8th, the electorate can be split into three groups, one of which are referred to as “Hard Leavers” and represents those who want out of the EU (45 per cent).
However, the Remain camp is split into two, the larger group being those who voted to Remain last summer but now think the Government has a duty to take Britain out of the bloc, known as “Re-Leavers” (23 per cent).
That leaves only 22 per cent of voters being “Hard Remainers” who still want to try to stop Brexit.
The FT refers to the “big lake made up of Leave and Re-Leave voters and a much smaller Remain pond”, meaning the Conservatives and UKIP are “fishing among 68 per cent of voters, while Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and nationalists are battling for just 22 per cent of the electorate”.
Amongst the parties vying for seats in the election, the Liberal Democrats will pledge in their manifesto a second referendum if the final Brexit deal is not considered “satisfactory” and Jeremy Corbyn refused six times to confirm whether Britain would definitely leave the EU under Labour.
— YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2017
Latest figures from YouGov show the Liberal Democrats down two per cent at nine per cent, with the Conservatives at 49 per cent. Liberal Democrats have consistently shown to have lost ground according to ComRes, OpiniumResearch, and ORB International, as well.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 – 12 May)
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 13, 2017
University of Kent political scientist Matthew Goodwin estimates the party made a “major strategic blunder” gambling on a “Brexit realignment” going in their favour.
— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) May 13, 2017
Meanwhile, Labour’s modest gains since the manifesto leak still leaves the party being between 14 and 18 per cent behind the Conservative Party. This indicates that parties on the left who are not committed to Brexit are drawing support from a smaller pool of voters ahead of next month’s general election.