Nate Silver: 60% Chance GOP Takes Back Senate

Nate Silver: 60% Chance GOP Takes Back Senate

Statistician Nate Silver believes the Senate is trending toward Republicans. 

On ABC’s This Week, Silver projected that Republicans have a 60% chance to win the six seats they need to take back control of the Senate in November. His data model also projects that Republicans have a 30% chance for a “really big” win of up to 11 seats. 

Silver, who re-launched his FiveThirtyEight site this week in conjunction with ESPN after predicting the outcomes of the last two presidential elections, said Republicans will pick up seats in West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. 

Republicans see prime chances to gain seats in places like Arkansas, Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Montana. And Silver gave the GOP a 70% chance to win Arkansas, 55% chance to win Louisiana, and a 50% chance to win North Carolina. 

He also said Republicans have a 45% chance to win Alaska and Michigan, 35% chance to win Colorado, and a 30% chance to win in Iowa. 

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) suggested last week that Republicans could pick up, in the most optimistic scenario, as many as 13 seats in the Senate because of how unpopular President Barack Obama and Obamacare are among voters in low-turnout midterm elections. 


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