Poll Shows Elizabeth Warren Pulling Ahead in Early States

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 16: 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks during a rally in Washington Square Park on September 16, 2019 in New York City. Warren unveiled a sweeping anti-corruption plan earlier on Monday. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has extended her lead in early primary and caucus states, the latest YouGovUS/CBS News poll reveals.

YouGov conducted the survey for CBS News October 3 – October 9, 2019, polling 16,500 registered voters (7,958 Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters) in 18 early states. Of those surveyed, 31 percent named Warren as their Democrat nominee of choice. Joe Biden (D) came in second place with 25 percent support, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with 17 percent support. The results demonstrate a five-point gain for Warren, who had 26 percent to Biden’s 25 percent in the YouGovUS/CBS News poll taken August 28 – September 4, 2019.

The remaining candidates fell below the well-established top tier. The survey shows Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) down by double digits, with seven percent support. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) came in fifth place with five percent support, and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) came in right behind with four percent support. The remaining candidates saw one percent support or less. The margin of error is +/- 1.6 percent:

Warren also saw a boost in individual states. YouGov surveyed 506 registered Democrats in New Hampshire. Thirty-two percent of those respondents chose Warren as their first choice, followed by Biden with 24 percent and Sanders with 17 percent. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percent:

The survey showed a tighter race in the early caucus state, Iowa. Of the 729 registered Democrats surveyed, 22 percent chose both Warren and Biden. Sanders came in a close third with 21 percent support, followed by Buttigieg with 14 percent support. The margin of error for the Hawkeye State results is +/- 4.6 percent:

Biden, however, continues to hold a strong lead in South Carolina, with 43 percent of the 915 registered Democrats surveyed choosing the former vice president. He topped his closest competitor, Warren, by 25 percent. She garnered 18 percent, followed by Sanders with 16 percent. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percent:

While Biden still holds the greatest electability, he has experienced a ten-point drop in the last month, falling from 77 percent to 67 percent. Warren’s electability, however, has slightly grown, jumping from 55 percent in September to 56 percent in October.

Biden and Warren will face each other on the debate stage alongside ten other candidates at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio, on Tuesday evening.


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