While I no longer believe in polls, I do believe in trends, and the current polling trends for President Trump are terrible.
Over the past seven or eight weeks, according to the reliable RealClearPolitics Poll of Polls…
Trump’s job approval has sunk from 47.3 percent to 43.5. His disapproval number has jumped from 49.5 percent to 54 percent.
The public’s approval of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus has completely flipped, from 51 percent approve to just 43 percent approve — from 45 percent disapprove to 54 percent disapprove.
Against Joe Biden in their upcoming 2020 match-up, Trump went from a 4.4 point deficit to what is now nearly an eight-point deficit.
And let’s not forget that in 2016, the national polls called the race right.
Though not as sharp, the trend is the same in the swing states — moving away from Trump. But… It is important to remember how wrong the state polling was in 2016.
The good news in the polling, and it’s not a small thing, is enthusiasm.
In the June 1 Washington Post poll, Biden beats Trump by ten points, 53 to 43 percent. In late March, Biden was only up two points, 49 to 47 percent. But on the issue of enthusiasm, 90 percent of Trump’s voters are enthusiastic, compared to just 74 percent of Biden voters.
The other two pieces of good news are that Slow Joe Biden is a terrible politician and there’s plenty of time and a million news cycles between now and Election Day.
If you don’t believe the polling trends, stop reading here, because I do believe the trends, and I’m going to analyze why I believe Trump’s numbers are sinking…
During a crisis, a president really only has one job: to project steadiness. That’s it. That’s all the American people really want from their leaders. That’s why Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) can screw absolutely everything up with his coronavirus response and still enjoy huge approval numbers. That’s why Iraq could fall completely apart on former President George W. Bush in 2004 and he still won his reelection. That’s why a radical like Barack Obama could beat war hero John McCain, who came off as erratic and neurotic.
Calm, cool, unruffled, and steady is the key…
Trump either refuses to behave in his own best interest during the dual crises of the coronavirus and these riots, or he’s incapable of behaving in a way that’s in his own best interest.
You know, I like Trump being Trump … when times are good.
When 100,000 people are not dying, when the economy is not imploding, and when dozens of Democrat-run cities are not on fire, Trump being Trump makes my day. I like that he hits back at the media, hijacks the news cycle with his Twitter feed, and blasts back twice as hard at his critics. I not only like it; I think it’s good politics, most especially when Deep State Traitors like James Comey are trying to legitimize a coup.
I’ll tell you something else I have no problem during normal times… If Trump wants to troll the execrable Joe Scarborough over a dead intern. I’ll pop the popcorn. That scumbag Scarborough and his Trophy Wife have been falsely accusing Trump of everything from being a Russian spy to genocide… In normal times, during good times, I would find that hilarious and just. When 100,000 Americans are dead, and the economy is imploding, and dozens of Democrat-run cities are on fire, I find it childish, selfish, and self-destructive.
As is encouraging your supporters to show up in what will almost certainly be a violent confrontation in front of the White House.
As is repeatedly shouting “LAW & ORDER!” out of nowhere.
As is re-tweeting a guy who says the “only good Democrat is a dead Democrat.”
What’s even more frustrating is that Trump’s done a solid job managing both the coronavirus and the riots. He’s also said a lot of the right things, but his refusal to calm down, project steadiness, and rise above it all is undermining all the good work.
Trump’s problems all started right here — he was doing just fine and earning solid approval numbers handling the coronavirus until he allowed the corporate media to bait him into overriding his own message and burying vital information the public needed under those endless and godawful briefings where he wrestled with the media pigs for hours. To what end? Why? As far as I’m concerned, that was all Trump’s fault because he allowed his (perfectly understandable) hatred for the media to get the best of him, and the result was not only the implosion of his own approval ratings, but necessary public information imploding in a fit of presidential pique.
Over the past six or so weeks, he’s at least put an end to those destructive briefings, but the presidential steadiness is still not there … because Lil’ Joey Scarborough said something mean.
For five years, Trump has told us he is perfectly capable of acting presidential if he wants to, but when sliding poll numbers can’t make him want to act presidential, I start to wonder.
When projecting steadiness and calm would go a long way towards beating the bastards Trump wants so badly to beat and he still doesn’t, I start to wonder.
I’m still going to crawl over glass to vote for the guy, but I’m pretty disgusted right now. Forty million people are out of work, our cities are on fire… Trump needs to do better, for the country’s sake and his own.