Polls Show Arizona Sen. Martha McSally Taking Lead from Democrat Challenger Mark Kelly

Mark Kelly and Martha McSally
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Two polls examining the Senate race in Arizona show Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) taking the lead from Democrat challenger Mark Kelly (D) — a significant shift, as Kelly has led the incumbent in a barrage of polls in recent months.

A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey released Friday showed McSally overtaking Kelly in the Grand Canyon State, garnering 50 percent to Kelly’s 47 percent. That represents a six-point bounce for McSally, who trailed Kelly by four percent (44 percent to Kelly’s 48 percent) in a September 25 poll:

The survey, taken October 19-22 among 500 likely general election voters, has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.

Similarly, an Arizona for the American Action Forum/Basswood Research survey released Thursday showed McSally leading Kelly by two percentage points, or 49 percent to 47 percent. The survey, taken October 3-5 among 800 likely general election voters, has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent, indicating a statistical tie:

Since January, only two surveys included in the RealClearPolitics average of the Arizona Senate race have shown McSally leading her challenger. Friday’s average, which included the Susquehanna survey, had Kelly up by 5.6 percent.

His seeming dip in the polls comes as Republicans target Kelly for his “shady record and ties to China.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) recently released a video highlighting Kelly’s ties to China, “specifically his decision to take the Chinese Communist Party’s Young Leaders Forum banner into orbit with him at one time,” as Breitbart News reported.

Last week, Kelly’s deputy press secretary, T.J. L’Heureux, apologized after calling police “worthless fucking pigs” in a tweet posted in August.


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