The daily Rasmussen tracking poll shows President Donald Trump with a 48 percent to 47 percent national lead over his Democrat rival, Joe Biden.
Just 24 hours ago, on Tuesday, Biden led in this poll by two points, 49 to 47 percent.
“Trump earns 81% support among Republicans and leads by three points among voters not affiliated with either major party,” the pollster reports. “Biden has 79% of the Democrat vote but has led among unaffiliateds in previous surveys.”
This is a survey of 1,500 likely voters taken on Thursday October 22 and Sunday and Monday, October 25-26. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 points.
Rasmussen, one of the few pollsters that correctly called the 2016 race, also has Trump’s job approval rating at 52 percent, with a 47 percent disapproval.
Overall, there has been a considerable tightening in the national polls. In the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, Biden had a 10.2 point lead two weeks ago. He is still up by an average of 7.1 points, but two pollsters (Emerson and IBD/TIPP) have it within five.
Here’s what we know so far about the early vote…
In Michigan, Republicans make up 41 percent of the early vote, compared to the Democrats’ 39 percent. This is unchanged from yesterday.
In Wisconsin, Republicans lead Democrats in the early vote by a five point margin of 42 to 37 percent. This is unchanged from yesterday.
In Florida, Democrats hold an early vote advantage of five points, 42 to 37 percent. Yesterday, that was a seven point lead and there’s a lot of talk that Democrats are nowhere near where they had hoped to be at this time.
In Iowa, Democrat early vote is outpacing the GOP by 49 to 32 percent. Those 17 points might sound like a lot, but in 2016, Democrats beat Republicans by 24 points at the end of early voting. So as of right now, Democrats are actually down seven points compared to 2016, and Trump won Iowa by 9.5 points.
In Georgia, Republican are up 50 to 43 over Democrats, the same as yesterday.
In Ohio, the GOP leads 48 to 39 percent, the same as yesterday.
In North Carolina, Democrats are stuck at a ten point lead, and I say stuck because in 2016 they ended early voting with a 13 point lead and still lost the state.
In Nevada, Democrats hold 41 to 36 percent early vote lead.
Usual caveats apply that early voting is not predictive, and we do not know who these votes are going to.