A new poll suggests that incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) could survive the effort to boot him from office, with just days away from the September 14 recall.
A U.C. Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll revealed that 60.1 percent of likely voters said they oppose Newsom being recalled.
A total of 38.5 percent said they favor ousting Newsom and just under 2 percent of respondents said they were undecided or declined to answer.
The poll also showed 65 percent of likely voters — and 89 percent of likely Democratic voters and 64 percent of independent voters — “thought electing a conservative Republican governor would threaten the state’s well-established progressive policies on climate change, immigration, healthcare, and abortion,” according to the Los Angeles Times:
The findings, which were gathered by pollsters between Aug. 30 and Sept. 6, reflect the results from a number of recent independent polls, which also showed strong support for Newsom.
A poll by the Berkeley institute just six weeks ago found that likely voters’ opinions were almost evenly split, a vulnerability for Newsom that at the time appeared to be driven mostly by the indifference many Democrats expressed about the recall.
Since then, Newsom’s campaign worked feverishly to redefine the recall campaign as a referendum on “Trumpism,” an effort aided greatly by the emergence of conservative talk show host Larry Elder, a loyalist to President Trump, as the clear favorite to become California’s next governor if the recall is successful.
Final @latimes @BerkeleyIGS poll for #CARecall:
60% No on Recall
39% Yes on Recall
That same poll in July:
50% No on Recall
47% Yes on Recall https://t.co/3TWfYcdQf8
— Elex Michaelson (@Elex_Michaelson) September 10, 2021
“In the early going it was probably more about whether they liked Newsom or not. It was personalized,” Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, said in the Times report. “By attacking his challenger, which is Elder, and framing it as ‘Look at what you’ll get if you vote for this guy’ … I think that really won the day.”
The poll also confirmed Elder as the frontrunner in the field of more than 40 other candidates at 38 percent — up from 18 percent in July.
Democrat Kevin Paffrath, who has 1.6 million followers for his personal finance videos on YouTube, came in a distant second at 10 percent.
The Times reported that ballots have already been mailed to all California registered voters and that the returned mail ballots so far show that more than twice as many Democrats have voted as Republicans, according to state officials and political data researchers.
Those officials say that those who vote in person will mostly be those who support Gavin’s recall.
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