Survey: Trump, Biden in Dead Heat as Trump Expands Lead in Republican Primary Field

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Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are locked in a dead heat in a hypothetical general election matchup while Trump continues to expand his lead over the Republican primary field, according to a Morning Consult survey. 

The survey, published Tuesday, shows both Biden and Trump with 43 percent support in a general election matchup, surveyed among more than 5,000 registered voters nationally. Another five percent of the respondents are undecided, while ten percent would vote for “someone else.” 

The survey comes as Trump leads Biden in the Real Clear Politics polling average by 1.2 percentage points as of October 3.

Morning Consult also tested Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) strength against Biden in a hypothetical matchup, finding he trails by three percentage points. In that scenario, Biden garners 42 percent of the vote, while DeSantis takes 39 percent. Seven percent are undecided as to who they would vote for, and eleven percent would cast a ballot for someone else. 

The margin of error for the general election portion of the survey is plus or minus one percentage point.

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In looking at the Republican presidential primary, Trump continues to dominate the field with 61 percent, up from 58 percent in last week’s survey, as Breitbart News noted. His lead over DeSantis has grown a net five points as DeSantis support has dwindled to 13 percent from 15 percent in last week’s survey.

From there, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are tied in third place at seven percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence hauls five percent of the respondents’ support, while former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) follows with three percent. 

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) each take one percent to round out the field. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) and former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) did not register a percentage point. One percent would vote for another person.

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The poll also asked respondents with preferred candidates who their second-choice candidate would be. Of those who back Trump, 33 percent say DeSantis is their second choice, while 22 percent identify Ramaswamy as their backup option. Thirteen percent of Trump supporters say Pence is their second choice, while six percent say Haley.

Conversely, 35 percent of DeSantis’s supporters say Trump is their second pick. Another 23 percent would back Haley if DeSantis were not an option, and 17 percent would support Ramaswamy. Ten percent of DeSantis backers view Pence as a second option, and five percent see Scott in this light. 

The GOP primary portion of the poll was conducted from September 29 to October 1 and sampled 3,857 potential GOP primary voters, including leaners. The margin of error for the GOP primary portion of the poll is plus or minus two percent, while the second option portion is plus or minus one to five percent.   

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