The SEC needed USC (that is South Carolina) to pull out a win to stay one point ahead of the Pac-12, +17 to +16, as the top conference. In the system explained here, both USC (that is Southern Cal) and Arizona State won to improve the Pac-12 to 3-0 but gained less than a point each for the conference by winning by less than the spread.
To summarize the table of all Bowl games below, the Power 5 currently rank: SEC +17, Pac-12 +16, Big 12 +10, Big Ten +8, and the big loser of the day, ACC +4.
The Big Ten widened it’s lead over the ACC when Penn State upset Boston College and Nebraska came closer than expected against USC to improve the conference to a +8. The Boston College loss was part of a 1-3 day for the ACC, which fell to a +4 with only Virginia Tech winning.
The Big 12 will have its first three Bowl games Monday, with a huge opportunity with Texas and West Virginia having a chance to upset SEC schools and Oklahoma only a slight favorite over Clemson. A win by all three would give the Big 12 a chance to get in the mix with the Pac-12 and SEC, while losing all three would drop them behind the Big Ten.
Conference USA has virtually locked up the top mark of the Group of 5 with a final -4 rating, followed by the American (-9), Mountain West (-12), Sun Belt (-13), Mid-American (-16).
With CUSA done with a 4-1 mark and Cincinnati of the American losing by 16 to Virginia Tech on Saturday, the American could catch CUSA only if both East Carolina and Houston won by at least 25 points against favored Florida and Pitt respectively.
By the same token, CUSA could catch the ACC only if Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Pitt all lost by 25 points or more.
| Conference Team | %W | Pred | Opponent | Win? | Margin | Adjust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 40% | -3.5 | Virginia Tech | 0 | -16.0 | (1.30) |
| East Carolina | 21% | -10.5 | Florida | 3-Jan | ||
| Houston | 30% | -6.5 | Pittsburgh | 2-Jan | ||
| Memphis | 49% | -0.5 | BYU | 1 | 1.0 | 1.08 |
| UCF | 47% | -2.5 | NC State | 0 | -7.0 | (1.12) |
| American Athletic starts at -8 | 1.9 | -23.5 | (9) | |||
| – | ||||||
| Boston College | 65% | 5.5 | Penn St | 0 | -1.0 | (1.56) |
| Clemson | 41% | -3.5 | Oklahoma | 29-Dec | ||
| Duke | 28% | -7.5 | Arizona St | 0 | -5.0 | (0.46) |
| Florida St | 20% | -10.5 | Oregon | 1-Jan | ||
| Georgia Tech | 39% | -3.5 | Mississippi St | 31-Dec | ||
| Louisville | 29% | -6.5 | Georgia | 3-Dec | ||
| Miami FL | 46% | -2.5 | South Carolina | 0 | -3.0 | (0.94) |
| NC State | 53% | 2.5 | UCF | 1 | 7.0 | 1.12 |
| North Carolina | 59% | 3.5 | Rutgers | 0 | -19.0 | (2.08) |
| Pittsburgh | 70% | 6.5 | Houston | 2-Jan | ||
| Virginia Tech | 60% | 3.5 | Cincinnati | 1 | 16.0 | 1.30 |
| Atlantic Coast starts at 7 | 2.9 | 13.5 | 4 | |||
| – | ||||||
| Illinois | 37% | -4.5 | Louisiana Tech | 0 | -17.0 | (1.24) |
| Iowa | 37% | -4.5 | Tennessee | 2-Jan | ||
| Maryland | 15% | -14.5 | Stanford | 3-Dec | ||
| Michigan St | 50% | -0.5 | Baylor | 1-Jan | ||
| Minnesota | 29% | -7.5 | Missouri | 1-Jan | ||
| Nebraska | 37% | -4.5 | USC | 0 | -3.0 | (0.68) |
| Ohio St | 31% | -6.5 | Alabama | 1-Jan | ||
| Penn St | 35% | -5.5 | Boston College | 1 | 1.0 | 1.56 |
| Rutgers | 41% | -3.5 | North Carolina | 1 | 19.0 | 2.08 |
| Wisconsin | 32% | -6.5 | Auburn | 1-Jan | ||
| Big 10 starts at 6 | 1.8 | -26.5 | 8 | |||
| – | ||||||
| Baylor | 50% | 0.5 | Michigan St | 1-Jan | ||
| Kansas St | 51% | 0.5 | UCLA | 2-Jan | ||
| Oklahoma | 59% | 3.5 | Clemson | 29-Dec | ||
| Oklahoma St | 32% | -6.5 | Washington | 2-Jan | ||
| TCU | 49% | -0.5 | Mississippi | 31-Dec | ||
| Texas | 26% | -7.5 | Arkansas | 29-Dec | ||
| West Virginia | 47% | -1.5 | Texas A&M | 29-Dec | ||
| Big 12 starts at 10 | 2.1 | -12.5 | 10 | |||
| Louisiana Tech | 63% | 4.5 | Illinois | 1 | 17.0 | 1.24 |
| Marshall | 72% | 7.5 | N Illinois | 1 | 25.0 | 1.26 |
| Rice | 55% | 2.5 | Fresno St | 1 | 24.0 | 1.76 |
| UTEP | 20% | -10.5 | Utah St | 0 | -15.0 | (0.58) |
| W Kentucky | 67% | 5.5 | C Michigan | 1 | 1.0 | 0.48 |
| Conference USA starts at -8 | 2.8 | 9.5 | (4) | |||
| – | ||||||
| BYU | 51% | 0.5 | Memphis | 0 | -1.0 | (1.08) |
| Navy | 44% | -2.5 | @ San Diego St | 1 | 1.0 | 1.26 |
| Notre Dame | 28% | -7.5 | LSU | 30-Dec | ||
| FBS Indep starts at -1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | (1) | |||
| – | ||||||
| Bowling Green | 48% | -1.5 | South Alabama | 1 | 5.0 | 1.30 |
| C Michigan | 33% | -5.5 | W Kentucky | 0 | -1.0 | (0.48) |
| N Illinois | 28% | -7.5 | Marshall | 0 | -25.0 | (1.26) |
| Toledo | 53% | 1.5 | Arkansas St | 4-Jan | ||
| W Michigan | 45% | -2.5 | Air Force | 0 | -14.0 | (1.36) |
| Mid-American starts at -14 | 2.1 | -15.5 | (16) | |||
| Air Force | 55% | 2.5 | W Michigan | 1 | 14.0 | 1.36 |
| Boise St | 29% | -6.5 | Arizona | 31-Dec | ||
| Colorado St | 33% | -6.5 | Utah | 0 | -25.0 | (1.40) |
| Fresno St | 45% | -2.5 | Rice | -24.0 | (1.76) | |
| Nevada | 66% | 5.5 | ULL | 0 | -13.0 | (2.06) |
| San Diego St | 56% | 2.5 | Navy | 0 | -1.0 | (1.26) |
| Utah St | 80% | 10.5 | UTEP | 1 | 15.0 | 0.58 |
| Mountain West starts at -7 | 2.8 | 9.5 | (12) | |||
| – | ||||||
| Arizona | 71% | 6.5 | Boise St | 31-Dec | ||
| Arizona St | 72% | 7.5 | Duke | 1 | 5.0 | 0.46 |
| Oregon | 80% | 10.5 | Florida St | 1-Jan | ||
| Stanford | 85% | 14.5 | Maryland | 30-Dec | ||
| UCLA | 49% | -0.5 | Kansas St | 2-Jan | ||
| USC | 63% | 4.5 | Nebraska | 1 | 3.0 | 0.68 |
| Utah | 67% | 6.5 | Colorado St | 1 | 25.0 | 1.40 |
| Washington | 68% | 6.5 | Oklahoma St | 2-Jan | ||
| Pac 12 starts at 13 | 3.3 | 31.5 | 16 | |||
| – | ||||||
| Alabama | 69% | 6.5 | Ohio St | 1-Jan | ||
| Arkansas | 74% | 7.5 | Texas | 29-Dec | ||
| Auburn | 68% | 6.5 | Wisconsin | 1-Jan | ||
| Florida | 79% | 10.5 | East Carolina | 3-Jan | ||
| Georgia | 71% | 6.5 | Louisville | 3-Dec | ||
| LSU | 72% | 7.5 | Notre Dame | 3-Dec | ||
| Mississippi | 51% | 0.5 | TCU | 31-Dec | ||
| Mississippi St | 61% | 3.5 | Georgia Tech | 31-Dec | ||
| Missouri | 71% | 7.5 | Minnesota | 1-Jan | ||
| South Carolina | 54% | 2.5 | Miami FL | 1 | 3.0 | 0.94 |
| Tennessee | 63% | 4.5 | Iowa | 2-Jan | ||
| Texas A&M | 53% | 1.5 | West Virginia | 29-Dec | ||
| Southeastern starts at 16 | 3.0 | 19.5 | 17 | |||
| – | ||||||
| Arkansas St | 47% | -1.5 | Toledo | 4-Jan | ||
| South Alabama | 52% | 1.5 | Bowling Green | 0 | -5.0 | (1.30) |
| ULL | 34% | -5.5 | Nevada | 1 | 13.0 | 2.06 |
| Sun Belt starts at -14 | 4.4 | 14.0 | (13) |
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