Like Brexit and Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen could defy predictions to become president of France later this year, Goldman Sachs strategist Bobby Vedral has said, noting how “political correctness leads people to lie in the polls.”
Global head of Goldman Sachs’ MarketStrats group, Vedral said the market is too complacent over the upcoming election in France.
This week, he sent customers his analysis by email which read: “while the base case is that she won’t, it is at best naive, at worst negligent to assume she can’t.”
While he agrees with polls, which show arch-globalist former banker Emmanuel Macron will be made president of France in May, the strategist cautioned that there is data in the surveys which raises doubts.
When asked who they would vote for in the second round of the election in May (a runoff between the top two vote-getters if no one wins more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round on April 23), a significant proportion of respondents answered “don’t know”, with the proportion reaching as high as 42 per cent, depending on the candidate mix.
Citing the “shy voter” theory, the idea that people can be reluctant to tell pollsters they intend to vote for a right-wing option in elections — thought to have been at work when electorates opted for Brexit and Donald Trump — Vedral said he believes that a large number of those people don’t want to admit they will vote for populist Marine Le Pen.
“Political correctness leads people to lie in the polls. Hence populist candidates benefit from the ‘shy vote’,” said Vedral, who explained Le Pen gets very close to winning if even just two-thirds of those undecided voters go to Le Pen.
The Goldman Sachs strategist said that if the Front National candidate’s voters are more committed than those of Macron, Marine Le Pen could cross the line to become France’s next president.
Vedral told CNBC he believes the populist candidate could get 85 per cent of her supporters to show up at polling stations in May. If only three-quarters of Macron supporters cast their ballots, the MarketStrats chief said Le Pen could win the election.
This week, the Front National icon vowed to control immigration if elected, declaring: “You, the French citizens, have the right to make up your own minds, to protect yourselves … from the sources of insecurity that come from opening up our borders.”
In stark contrast to Le Pen, Tony Blair-a-like Macron claimed “asylum seekers are fighting for their freedoms and their lives”.
Breitbart London has previously reported how the globalist ally of Hillary Clinton maintains that countless millions of people will move to Europe from the third world in coming decades. Claiming it’s impossible to escape such a flood, Macron urged the continent to “reconcile” itself with this fate.