Hollywood's Biggest Easter Weekend Ever By As Much As 16%!: 'Hannah Montana' Down 40% on Saturday, But Still Becomes All-Time #2 Easter Weekend Opening With $34M!

She has a hit TV show on the Disney Channel, a pair of albums that have debuted at #1 on the Billboard charts, a concert tour with 69 sold-out arenas in North America, and now a second #1 movie in as many years. Miley Cyrus is the biggest teen star in the world.

With most of Hollywood (including myself) expecting an opening in the mid-$20M’s for Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney), Miley has surprised “grown-ups” with her box office clout once again. The picture opened with a heavily front-loaded $17.39M on Good Friday then dropped 40% on Saturday to an estimated $10.34M, and it will reach an estimated $34M by the end of Easter weekend, making it the all-time #2 opening for the bunny holiday weekend. My Friday night early 3-day projection was for $33.6M, but then I raised my number to $39M on Saturday. As it turns out, I should have stuck with my first pass. These young skewing movies are tricky to project, and the Easter Weekend, where Saturday traditionally drops from Friday, makes it even more complicated.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 EASTER WEEKEND OPENINGS

1. Scary Movie 4 – $40.2M

2. Hannah Montana The Movie – $34M (projected)

3. Panic Room – $30M

4. The Matrix – $27.7M

5. Guess Who – $20.7M

That is also stronger than Miley Cyrus’ 3-D concert movie last year. 2008’s Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, which was promoted as a one-week-only motion picture event and benefited from a 3-D upcharge, delivered a stunning $31.1M last February. This 16-year-old has outdone herself.

For the business overall, it appears to be a spectacular frame as Hannah and some strong holdovers will likely have scored the biggest Easter Weekend in modern box office history, surpassing 2002’s holiday 3-day. In fact, this 3-day could beat the previous record by as much as 16%.

ALL-TIME BIGGEST GROSSING EASTER WEEKENDS

– totals are for the top 10 films for the holiday 3-day –

1. 4/10/09 – $126.4M [#1 – Hannah Montana The Movie – $34M] (projected)

2. 3/29/02 – $108.8M [#1 – Panic Room – $30M]

3. 4/14/06 – $107.08M [#1 – Scary Movie 4 – $40.2M]

4. 4/06/07 – $104.5M [#1 – Blades of Glory – $22.5M]

5. 3/21/08 – $94.65M [#1 – Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears A Who! – $24.6M]

6. 4/07/04 – $87.9M [#1 – Passion of the Christ – $15.2M]

7. 3/25/05 – $86.8M [#1 – Guess Who – $20.6M]

8. 4/18/03 – $83.8M [#1 – Anger Management – $25M]

9. 4/02/99 – $72.7M [#1 – The Matrix – $27.8M]

10. 4/21/00 – $70.3M [#1 – U-571 – $19.5M]

Hollywood wouldn’t be making history were it not for the continued high octane ticket sales of Fast & Furious (Universal). The fourth in the F&F franchise is down about 59% from its rubber-burning $71M opening, but it will still likely manage a an estimated $28.78M, more than enough for second-place. The Diesel-Walker-Brewster-Rodriguez “speed machine” will have about $118M in the bank on Monday, putting it miles ahead of the other movies in the franchise.

10-DAY GROSSES FOR FAST & FURIOUS FRANCHISE

1. Fast & Furious (2009) – $118M opening (projected)

2. 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003) – $83.6M opening

3. The Fast & The Furious (2001) – $77.9M opening

4. The Fast & The Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) – $43.2M opening

Monsters Vs. Aliens from Dreamworks Animation continues to perform in monstrous proportions. The cutting edge 3-D spectacle added another $9.07M on its third Friday (no school for lots of kids), and it has reached $22.6M thanks to big family matinees on Saturday and Sunday. MVA is the fifth-best performer for Dreamworks Animation after 17 days, trailing only the Shrek franchise and Kung Fu Panda.

TOP 10 GROSSES FOR DREAMWORKS ANIMATION AFTER 17 DAYS

1. Shrek 2 – $287M

2. Shrek the Third – $255.9M

3. Shrek – $148.3M

4. Kung Fu Panda – $155.8M

5. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)

6. Madagascar 2 – $137.1M

7. Madagascar – $128.4M

8. Shark Tale – $118.7M

9. Over the Hedge – $112.3M

10. Bee Movie – $93.6M

But Monsters Vs. Aliens looks even better when compared to other animated films released during non-peak times. Jeffrey Katzenberg’s latest is almost keeping pace with Fox’s Ice Age: The Meltdown.

TOP GROSSES FOR NON-SUMMMER, NON-HOLIDAY ANIMATED MOVIES AFTER 17 DAYS

– excludes movies released May-August and November-December –

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $147.2M

2. Monsters vs. Aliens – $141M (projected)

3. Shark Tale – $118.7M

4. Dr. Suess’ Horton Hears A Who! – $177.5M

5. Ice Age – $116.8M

Not all good news for the studios. Observe & Report, the new Seth Rogen, R-rated comedy from Warner Bros, got off to a sluggish start with about $4.76M and dipped below $4M on Saturday. Reviews are very good, and this one could benefit from positive word-of-mouth over the long haul, but the Warner Bros estimate is for just $11.1M or so for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Fox’s Dragonball: Evolution is a bomb with estimated sales of just $2M on opening day and a $4.65M 3-day start (8th place). Summit’s strong-holding Knowing rounds out the top five with a possible $6.67M for a new cume of almost $68M.

FRIDAY STUDIO ESTIMATES

1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $17.39M, $5,577 PTA, $17.39M cume

2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $10.6M, $3,053PTA, $99.85M cume

3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $9.07M, $2,193 PTA, $127.46M cume

4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $4.76M, $1,746 PTA, $4.76M cume

5. Knowing (Summit) – $2.4M, $821 PTA, $63.73M cume

6. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $2.35, $864 PTA, $42.93M cume

7. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $2.3M, $870 PTA, $54.88M cume

8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $2M, $917 PTA, $2M cume

9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $1.25M, $666 PTA, $9.26M cume

10. Duplicity (Universal) – $1M, $509 PTA, $34.85M cume

3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES

1. NEW – Hannah Montana The Movie (Disney) – $34M, $10,904 PTA, $34M cume

2. Fast & Furious (Universal) – $28.78M, $8,290 PTA, $118M cume

3. Monsters vs. Aliens (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $22.61M, $5,468 PTA, $141M cume

4. NEW – Observe & Report (Warner Bros) – $11.14M, $4,085 PTA, $11.14M cume

5. Knowing (Summit) – $6.67M, $2,280 PTA, $68M cume

6. I Love You Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.41M, $2,426 PTA, $59M cume

7. The Haunting in Connecticut (Lionsgate) – $5.71M, $2,098 PTA, $46.29M cume

8. NEW – Dragonball: Evolution (Fox) – $4.65M, $2,132 PTA, $4.65M cume

9. Adventureland (Miramax) – $3.43M, $1,830 PTA, $11.45M cume

10. Duplicity (Universal) – $2.99M, $1,525 PTA, $36.84M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter@LAMase.