Non-white voters now make up more than half of the first-time voters in some of the Conservative Party’s key targets, according to a data study from elections expert Ian Warren. This will make it harder for David Cameron to win seats, as just one in six non-whites voted Conservative in 2010.
In 35 of the 40 seats the Conservatives need to win to form a majority government there has been an increase in ethnic minority voters since the last election. There has also be an increase in 25 of the seats the party need to hold, the report in the Times said.
Two key battleground seats Hampstead and Kilburn and Harrow West will have a minority of non-white first-time voters by next year’s election. They are held by Labour with a majorities of just 42 and 3143 respectively.
Whilst 74 percent of over 45s in Hampstead and Kilburn are white, this figure falls to just 45 percent amongst teenagers eligible to vote in 2015. A demographic shift that is only likely to become more pronounced over time as the ethnic minority population grows.
The figures for white first-time voters are even lower in Harrow West, where two thirds of first-time voters are from ethnic minorities. This is the highest level of any battleground seat, and if previous voting trends amongst ethnic minorities holds true, it would mean the Conservatives have no real chance of winning.
In Tory-held Hendon, the story is similar, 66 percent of over 45s are white but only 45 percent of new voters are. The Conservatives hold the seat with a majority of just 106 over Labour, a margin that could easily be overturned.
Across all 65 seats analysed, 87 per cent of first-time voters were white, compared to 95 per cent of voters over 45.
As previously reported on Breitbart London, the Conservatives are finding it impossible to attract ethnic minority voters and it could cost them the election. Increased immigration and higher birthrates mean that popularity with non-whites is useful electorally. Labour secured 68 percent of the ethnic minority vote in 2010, whilst the Conservatives secured just 16 percent.
The news comes just weeks after former cabinet minister Sayeeda Warsi warned the Conservatives that having a pro-Israeli stance could cost them the election. Whilst Warsi remains an unpopular figure in the party she is right to point out that demographics mean that supporting the Hamas government in Gaza would be the more popular strategy in Britain.