Germany’s largest bank has predicted British stocks will be the best performing in the continent and top UK firms will outperform EU rivals by as much as 5 per cent after a Brexit.
The forecast, from Germany’s Deutsche Bank, comes on the same day that the British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne threatened tax hikes by reaffirming his catastrophic forecast for the economy, based on claims from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) – a Europhile think-tank funded by the EU and the British government.
The IFS claims to be “politically independent”, yet receives 50 per cent of its money from the UK government and 10 per cent from the European Research Council (ERC) – financed by the EU and established by the European Commission.
The BBC, meanwhile, has not yet reported the news from Deutsche Bank. Furthermore, last night BBC News cited the IFS to dismiss claims Brexit would make more money available for public services, and introduced their spokesman as “many economists”.
— East Kilbride SNP (@EK_SNP) June 14, 2016
While Europe’s fourth biggest bank and the world’s largest foreign exchange dealer might seem like a more reliable source than the IFS, many online took to Twitter to mock the bank’s claims (which featured on the front page of The Sun this morning) by highlighting yesterday’s volatility in the market.
the sun is outright lying on its front page today
— only listens to 2000s lad rock (@mrreptoid) June 15, 2016
This can't be true. The front page of The Sun denies it. https://t.co/xI2bEUfDON
— Chris Addison (@mrchrisaddison) June 14, 2016
The Sun front page reads 'Brexit rocket boost for shares'. Not sure how they're getting that from yesterday's FTSE bloodbath.
— Rob Davies (@ByRobDavies) June 15, 2016
Deutsche Bank’s predictions are based on the assumption that the value of sterling will continue to decline after falling by eight per cent since its November peak, making British goods cheaper abroad and driving exports.
A note from the bank stated that the UK stock market “tends to outperform during periods of GBP (pound) weakness” and claims the pound could fall by another five per cent by the end of the year.
Deutsche Bank concludes: “In the case of a Leave vote in the UK referendum (a scenario to which bookmakers’ odds attribute a 30 per cent probability), we expect UK equities to outperform the European market, given GBP downside in such a scenario as well as the market’s defensive sector structure.”
When UKIP leader Nigel Farage dismissed warnings about sterling falling after a Brexit by saying “So what?” over the weekend he was similarly mocked. There appears, however, to be sound reasoning behind his stance.