Britain’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) is gambling its reputation somewhat by predicting Russia is “unlikely” to make significant gains in the coming months.
Citing statements by Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov on the ongoing objectives of what Russia calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine, the MoD said that Moscow probably still regards the total “liberation” of the four Ukrainian regions annexed following widely unrecognised referendums as “minimum political objectives”.
However, none of these regions — Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas, and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in south-eastern Ukraine — are yet under full Russian control, with swathes of territory, particularly in the Kherson region, lost to Ukrainian counter-offensives in recent months.
“Russia’s strategy is currently unlikely to achieve its objectives: it is highly unlikely that the Russian military is currently able to generate an effective striking force capable of retaking these areas,” the British intelligence update suggested.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 12 December 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/ngW6tfLdtw
🇺 #StandWithUkraine 🇺 pic.twitter.com/E2XThQO2GD
— Ministry of Defence (@DefenceHQ) December 12, 2022
The MoD went on to make a more specific prediction that “Russian ground forces are unlikely to make operationally significant advances within the next several months” — although this does provide some wiggle room insofar as they can dismiss any gains Russian forces do make as not “operationally significant”.
Currently, the major focus of Russia’s offensive operations is Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region, with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky complaining that the invaders have “actually destroyed” the city in their ongoing efforts to take it.
While some Western media organisations such as the Associated Press were reporting as recently as late October that a Russian victory in Bakhmut “would rupture Ukraine’s supply lines and open a route for Russian forces to press on toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, key Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk province,” the current narrative is that Bakhmut has become a “meat grinder” for a city of “limited operational or strategic significance” which Moscow regards as “symbolic”.
Russians Have Lost over 60 Warplanes, Missions Cut Back Drastically – UK Intel https://t.co/8lXlDjouN3
— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) December 5, 2022
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