President Joe Biden’s decision to invite neither Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro nor the country’s rightful president, Juan Guaidó, to this week’s Summit of the Americas is a prelude to “normalizing” the Maduro regime, according to Rubén Chirino Leañez, CEO of the Venezuelan polling firm Meganálisis.
Chirino noted that Guaidó is “nothing” in terms of political capital and has no documented support in Venezuela despite being the legal president of the country, which gives Biden little incentive to elevate him.
During former President Donald Trump’s tenure in the White House, Chirino observed, Guaidó “was losing support but still sold an image of institutionality” that made it reasonable for the White House to invite Guaidó to a State of the Union address as a special guest in 2020.
Nicolás Maduro inherited the socialist dictatorship from late tyrant Hugo Chávez in 2013. After a series of sham elections, Venezuela’s opposition-held National Assembly used a constitutional provision that allows the removal of a president after a “rupture in the democratic order” to appoint Guaidó — then a member of the Assembly himself — the legal president of the country in 2019.
As interim president, Guaidó was sworn in with a mandate to remove Maduro and organize free and fair elections to replace himself. He has done neither of these things and holds no political power, as Venezuelan armed forces and law enforcement continue to answer to Maduro.
The Biden administration confirmed last week that it would not invite the Maduro regime to the Summit of the Americas, a meeting of the leaders of the governments in the Organization of American States (OAS), citing the fact that Maduro is not the country’s legitimate head of state. Pressed on whether that meant that Guaidó would represent Venezuela instead, the State Department coordinator of the Summit Kevin O’Reilly said that Guaidó’s invite was a “White House call.”
Guaidó never received the invite, but the White House published a readout late Wednesday of a call between the two presidents.
“President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today with Venezuelan Interim President Juan Guaidó to underscore the United States’ recognition of and support for the 2015 democratically-elected National Assembly and Guaidó as the Interim President of Venezuela,” according to the White House.
Biden reportedly pressured Guaidó to negotiate with the Maduro regime and hinted at easing sanctions on the regime: “President Biden reaffirmed the United States is willing to calibrate sanctions policy as informed by the outcomes of negotiations that empower the Venezuelan people to determine the future of their country.”
Guaidó – whose socialist opposition coalition has partially called for easing sanctions on Maduro as well – issued a statement on Twitter thanking Biden for “his recognition and backing to the interim government and the cause of Venezuela.”
“The world today faces a clear struggle between authoritarianism and democracy. The Summit of the Americas is a reflection of that,” Guaidó continued. “Democratic countries must stay firm, hold dictators and human rights violators responsible, and not leave along those of us who face them on the field.”
Agradecemos al Presidente Biden @POTUS su apoyo a los pueblos que luchan por la democracia al no invitar a los dictadores a la Cumbre. Los gobiernos de la región deben ponerse del lado de la gente y ejercer todas las herramientas democráticas para luchar contra el autoritarismo.
— Juan Guaidó (@jguaido) June 9, 2022
Chirino’s Meganálisis firm has consistently polled the Venezuelan people on their attitudes towards Guaidó and found little support in the past two years.
Meganálisis data shows that the vast majority of Venezuelan respondents believe the entirety of the establishment opposition in Venezuela has “sold out” to the regime. This has been the majority view since 2017, at which time 77.4 percent of respondents said they agreed with that sentiment. In the firm’s latest poll, about 78 percent said they view the opposition as sellouts, showing little movement in either direction.
Meganalisis
Estudio CATI
Verdad Venezuela Abril 2022
Data histórica de la percepción de los venezolanos, de que el liderazgo político opositor se vendió y trabaja para el chavismo, indica que esta idea se hizo mayoritaria después del 1 Sep 2016, luego de la "Toma de Caracas". pic.twitter.com/HagZDnOVV1— Encuestadora Meganalisis (@Meganalisis) May 26, 2022
Guaidó personally received an 84.1 percent disapproval rating in the April 2022 Meganálisis poll, the least popular opposition politician except for Henrique Capriles Radonski, a failed presidential candidate calling for an end to sanctions on Maduro.
“The agenda of normalization of the situation of the government of the United States [with the] government of Maduro that the Biden registration is enterprising and applying, is in full development,” Chirino observed in a conversation with Breitbart News on Wednesday. “It’s not that the absence of Guaidó will leave many Venezuelans uncomfortable or make them lose sleep at night – absolutely not. As we know for a while, Guaidó is nothing in terms of acceptance, popularity.”
“He is another pawn in what can be called ‘blue socialism’ … socialism theoretically in opposition that is nothing more than an appendix of the social democracy, social Christianism, coinhabitants of the Socialist International,” Chirino explained.
Guaidó, who is currently not a member of any party, rose from the Popular Will political party, which is a full member of the Socialist International. “That blue socialism that opposes red socialism has no support in the country so … it doesn’t affect Venezuelans.”
Chirino predicted that Biden’s attempts to foster dialogue and “normalize” ties to Maduro – a process that reportedly began with Biden sending representatives to meet with Maduro in Caracas in March — would result in a hefty political price for Democrats with the Hispanic-American vote.
“He is doing this late, it is taking him so long, because it is costing him too much politically to take this action,” Chirino explained. “A midterm election is coming to him at the end of the year … this is going to have an important political cost for Biden.”
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