Exclusive — Alabama Poll: Conservative Roy Moore Solidifies Lead over Radical Democrat Doug Jones

Roy Moore
Dave Martin/AP

MOBILE, Alabama — Judge Roy Moore, the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate here in Alabama, has rebounded and solidified his lead over radical Democrat Doug Jones with less than two weeks of campaigning to go, a new poll provided exclusively to Breitbart News shows.

The poll, conducted by Rick Shaftan of Atlantic Media and Research, shows Moore has picked up five points since the firm’s last survey last week—and that Jones has stagnated exactly where he was before. Moore, now at 48 percent, towers over Jones who is still stuck at 40 percent. The survey’s numbers last week, weighted to an expectation of 27 percent black turnout—an overestimation from what black turnout will likely be—had Moore at 43 percent and Jones at 40 percent.

Additionally, if the survey data is not weighted for turnout, Shaftan wrote in a polling memo to donors obtained exclusively by Breitbart News, Moore’s lead hits well into the double digits.

“Republican Roy Moore is on his way to winning what could be a very substantial rebuke to his political enemies. Moore led by 48-40 in the weighted data, up from 43-40 last week. In the unweighted data, Moore’s lead shot up from 43-37 to 53-35 (55-35 with definite voters),” Shaftan wrote.

The poll was conducted from November 27 to November 29, with a sample size of 373 likely voters and a margin of error of 5.1 percent.

Shaftan adds that if the black community does not turn out for Jones, this election could be a landslide.

“If turnout is whiter and older than anticipated, the election could become a double-digit landslide, even with as much as a million dollars on the street, or more, for election day,” Shaftan wrote. “Among non-African American voters, Moore’s lead exploded from 54-27 last week to 63-25. His favorables improved slightly from an upside down 31-39 to an even 34-34 while Jones remained constant at 32-35. (These numbers reflect the weighted results and not the raw data that is significantly more favorable to Moore.)”

Shaftan argues that the data demonstrates that while Jones is consolidating his Democratic base, Moore is uniting Republicans and winning all the independents and undecideds. “Undecided voters are deciding, and they’re breaking heavy for Moore,” Shaftan wrote.

He added that the ads Jones is running quoting Republicans like Ivanka Trump and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) bashing Moore over the evidence-free accusations against him from decades ago are backfiring.

“This situation has gotten even worse for Jones in the last week as Republicans are not only refusing to abandon Judge Moore, but are rushing to stand with him in the face of millions in outside liberal dollars,” Shaftan wrote. “In fact, these ads are offending voters to the point that they are acting as a Moore GOTV operation. And we’re seeing that in the open-endeds.”

Last week, right before Thanksgiving, President Donald Trump offered up a defense of Moore—noting he denied the allegations—and criticized Jones as being too liberal for Alabama.

Next week, former White House chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon, the executive chairman of Breitbart News, will campaign with Judge Moore in Fairhope, Alabama. More undecided voters seem to be breaking, Shaftan wrote, in the direction of Moore—against Jones—as a result of all of this and more.

“As was the case last week, the remaining undecided voters lean right and represent low-hanging fruit for the Moore campaign to pick up in the coming weeks,” Shaftan wrote. “57 percent consider themselves conservative or libertarian, a higher proportion than the electorate and the exact same percentage as the much larger undecided pool from last week. Moore’s unfavorable is 36 percent with these voters (from 34 percent). Jones’s is 21 percent (20 percent last week).”

Shaftan concluded that it is “highly unlikely” that Jones has any chance at all at winning this election.

“Last week, we wrote that the worst of the storm is over and our ‘worst case’ three-point lead is now eight points as Republicans unite behind his candidacy and make a Jones victory highly unlikely at best. None of this data is ‘secret.’ The Jones crew, with literally millions of dollars at their disposal, are doing poll calls exactly like ours and finding out exactly the same thing. The consultants will never let them pull their ads this late, even though that’s what logic would dictate when all avenues of escape are gone. Instead, expect Democrats to go full tilt scorched earth in the final ten days as their defeat becomes more and more apparent. The Moore campaign needs to run a heavy schedule of made-for-TV big rallies to show images of strong grass-roots support to bolster the existing message. They also need to hit back Jones in earned and paid media on the Democrat’s radical left-wing extremism, blind loyalty to Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, and bizarre enthusiastic support for taxpayer-funded partial birth and other abortions up to the moment of birth.”


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