Poll: Donald Trump Maintains Commanding Lead over Potential 2024 Primary Field

Former President Donald Trump waves to the crowd before the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs Saturday, May 7, 2022, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
AP Photo/Mark Humphrey

Former President Donald Trump maintains a commanding lead over potential 2024 primary contenders, according to a Wednesday Morning Consult/Politico poll.

Voters were asked, “If the 2024 Republican presidential primary were being held today, for whom would you vote?”

Fifty-three percent supported Donald Trump, 30 points greater than Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who was supported by 23 percent. The following potential contenders did not reach double digits:

  • Mike Pence 7%
  • Marco Rubio 1%
  • Mitt Romney 2%
  • Nikki Haley 2%
  • Ted Cruz 3%
  • Tim Scott 1%
  • Kristi Noem 1%
  • Larry Hogan 0%
  • Liz Cheney 2%

Trump’s polling among voters has improved while President Joe Biden has held office. In October, 47 percent of respondents supported Trump for president. In June, that number increased to 51 percent.

On the Democrat side of the aisle, only 72 percent said they would support Joe Biden’s reelection in a Democrat primary. Twenty percent said another candidate would earn their support.

Additional polling shows Biden’s support for a 2024 campaign is weak. Only “26 percent of Democratic voters said the party should renominate him in 2024,” the New York Times found. “64 percent of Democratic voters say they would prefer a new standard-bearer in the 2024 presidential campaign.”

Among all voters, polling shows only 14 percent of voters are confident that Biden will definitely run for reelection.

Despite falling support for Biden among Democrats, he has claimed Democrats want him to run in 2024. “They [Democrats] want me to run” in 2024, Joe Biden said on July 12. “Read the polls. Read the polls, Jack.”

If both Biden and Trump announce 2024 campaigns, public opinion favors Trump. Multiple polls have shown Biden behind Trump in a potential head-to-head contest.

The Politico poll sampled 2005 voters July 15-17 with a 2 point margin of error.

Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter and Gettr @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. 

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