With a margin of error at plus or minus 3.1 percent, a 2024 presidential poll shows Arizona is a jump ball.
The news is only a little better for DeSantis in this crucial swing state which shows the Florida Republican Governor beating His Fraudulency Joe Biden by a single point, while former President Trump is down only two points.
If the race were held today, this Ohio Insights poll of 1,000 registered voters taken between January 31 and February 9 shows DeSantis at 36 percent to Biden’s 35 percent. So, Desantis +1.
Against Trump, Biden comes out on top 39 to 37 percent. So, Trump -2.
More from the pollster:
A bare majority of Republicans (53%) are certain there is room for Donald Trump in today’s GOP, but nearly one-third (30%) say there is no room for him. For the current President, equal shares of Democrats want (35%) and do not want (38%) Joe Biden to run for re-election in 2024.
If next year’s general election came down, yet again, to Trump v. Biden, partisans would retreat to their corners and back their party’s candidate – setting the stage for another razor-thin margin. The poll found that 72% of Republicans would back Trump and 77% of Democrats would support Biden.
The poll shows Trump would win 7 percent of Democrats and 28 percent of independents. Meanwhile, Joe Biden would win ten percent of Republicans and 35 percent of independents.
Against Trump, DeSantis does worse with Republicans (65 percent to Trump’s 72 percent) but better with independents (34 percent to Trump’s 28 percent). Alternatively, against DeSantis, Biden does worse with Republicans (7 percent compared to 10 percent against Trump) and worse with independents (29 percent compared to 35 percent against Trump).
The good news for DeSantis in this poll is that he is probably the only candidate among the three who has a lot of room to improve, to grow his support. As known quantities, Biden and Trump supporters are what they are. However, in the Biden v. Trump match-up, 25 percent are undecided. But in the Biden v. DeSantis match-up, a whopping 38 percent are undecided.
Arizona will be a vital swing state in 2024. Although the outcome was widely disputed in 2020, Biden came out ahead in that state by a mere 0.3 percent.
Overall, though, the DeSantis polling won’t mean anything unless or until he decides to run in 2024. Everything changes once you throw your hat in the ring. And if DeSantis does so, he faces a bare-knuckle and potentially bruising primary against Trump, who has already announced. Of course, DeSantis could lose that primary, or he could come out of it so damaged by Trump he’d have no chance in a general election, or he could go all the way. There’s just no way to know until it happens, which makes these polls pure speculation.
As I’ve written before, as much as I like Trump, DeSantis would be crazy not to run in 2024. Regardless of who wins, a competitive primary would likely benefit both men. The only thing that might be putting DeSantis off is Nikki Haley’s decision to seek the GOP nomination. Trump’s support is rock solid, which means she can only eat away at potential DeSantis supporters.
Alana Mastrangelo / Breitbart NewsThen there was Trump’s political grand slam in East Palestine, Ohio, on Thursday. No politician since Bill Clinton has been able to connect with everyday Americans in such an effective way. More of this and less shit-posting on social media… No one could beat Trump.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.
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