Poll: Jewish Voters Favor Republicans over Democrats by Nearly Two to One

Republicans lead Democrats by 31 points among Jewish voters on the congressional ballot, according to a McLaughlin & Associates poll that points to a potential shift among a group that has long favored Democrats.

The poll found that 64 percent of Jewish voters backed Republicans for Congress, while 33 percent supported Democrats, pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin wrote in an article published by the firm Monday.

The result would mark a major shift from the large margins by which Jewish voters have traditionally favored Democrats, though pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin warned that the sample of Jewish voters was small.

McLaughlin surveyed 1,000 likely midterm voters nationwide. Jewish voters represented four percent of the poll’s sample. The firm did not disclose the exact number of Jewish respondents or a margin of error for that group.

There have also been signs of a narrower Democrat advantage among Jewish voters in New York. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said this month that the party’s lead among Jewish voters on the House ballot in the state had dropped from 49 points in 2022 to 13 points this year.

The McLaughlin poll also looked at congressional preferences among other religious groups. Protestants favored Republicans 51 percent to 43 percent, and Catholics narrowly backed the GOP, 48 percent to 46 percent. Evangelical Christians, who overlap with other Christian categories, favored Republicans 56 percent to 37 percent.

Democrats led 51 percent to 43 percent among respondents who identified as secular, atheist, agnostic, or religiously unaffiliated. Muslim voters favored Democrats 63 percent to 37 percent, though they accounted for just two percent of the survey.

The McLaughlins noted that Republicans’ lead among Catholics was smaller than Trump’s 20-point margin with the group in 2024. They also compared Republicans’ eight-point lead among Protestants in their poll with Trump’s 27-point lead among Protestants and other Christians in the 2024 exit poll.