Bowls Sort out Conference Supremacy: SEC Keeps Edge over Pac-12 as Both USC Teams Win

The SEC needed USC (that is South Carolina) to pull out a win to stay one point ahead of the Pac-12, +17 to +16, as the top conference. In the system explained here, both USC (that is Southern Cal) and Arizona State won to improve the Pac-12 to 3-0 but gained less than a point each for the conference by winning by less than the spread.

To summarize the table of all Bowl games below, the Power 5 currently rank: SEC +17, Pac-12 +16, Big 12 +10, Big Ten +8, and the big loser of the day, ACC +4.

The Big Ten widened it’s lead over the ACC when Penn State upset Boston College and Nebraska came closer than expected against USC to improve the conference to a +8. The Boston College loss was part of a 1-3 day for the ACC, which fell to a +4 with only Virginia Tech winning.

The Big 12 will have its first three Bowl games Monday, with a huge opportunity with Texas and West Virginia having a chance to upset SEC schools and Oklahoma only a slight favorite over Clemson. A win by all three would give the Big 12  a chance to get in the mix with the Pac-12 and SEC, while losing all three would drop them behind the Big Ten.

Conference USA has virtually locked up the top mark of the Group of 5 with a final -4 rating, followed by the American (-9), Mountain West (-12), Sun Belt (-13), Mid-American (-16).

With CUSA done with a 4-1 mark and Cincinnati of the American losing by 16 to Virginia Tech on Saturday, the American could catch CUSA only if both East Carolina and Houston won by at least 25 points against favored Florida and Pitt respectively.

By the same token, CUSA could catch the ACC only if Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Pitt all lost by 25 points or more.

Conference Team %W Pred Opponent Win? Margin Adjust
Cincinnati 40% -3.5 Virginia Tech 0 -16.0 (1.30)
East Carolina 21% -10.5 Florida 3-Jan
Houston 30% -6.5 Pittsburgh 2-Jan
Memphis 49% -0.5 BYU 1 1.0 1.08
UCF 47% -2.5 NC State 0 -7.0 (1.12)
American Athletic starts at -8 1.9 -23.5 (9)
Boston College 65% 5.5 Penn St 0 -1.0 (1.56)
Clemson 41% -3.5 Oklahoma 29-Dec
Duke 28% -7.5 Arizona St 0 -5.0 (0.46)
Florida St 20% -10.5 Oregon 1-Jan
Georgia Tech 39% -3.5 Mississippi St 31-Dec
Louisville 29% -6.5 Georgia 3-Dec
Miami FL 46% -2.5 South Carolina 0 -3.0 (0.94)
NC State 53% 2.5 UCF 1 7.0 1.12
North Carolina 59% 3.5 Rutgers 0 -19.0 (2.08)
Pittsburgh 70% 6.5 Houston 2-Jan
Virginia Tech 60% 3.5 Cincinnati 1 16.0 1.30
Atlantic Coast starts at 7 2.9 13.5 4
Illinois 37% -4.5 Louisiana Tech 0 -17.0 (1.24)
Iowa 37% -4.5 Tennessee 2-Jan
Maryland 15% -14.5 Stanford 3-Dec
Michigan St 50% -0.5 Baylor 1-Jan
Minnesota 29% -7.5 Missouri 1-Jan
Nebraska 37% -4.5 USC 0 -3.0 (0.68)
Ohio St 31% -6.5 Alabama 1-Jan
Penn St 35% -5.5 Boston College 1 1.0 1.56
Rutgers 41% -3.5 North Carolina 1 19.0 2.08
Wisconsin 32% -6.5 Auburn 1-Jan
Big 10 starts at 6 1.8 -26.5 8
Baylor 50% 0.5 Michigan St 1-Jan
Kansas St 51% 0.5 UCLA 2-Jan
Oklahoma 59% 3.5 Clemson 29-Dec
Oklahoma St 32% -6.5 Washington 2-Jan
TCU 49% -0.5 Mississippi 31-Dec
Texas 26% -7.5 Arkansas 29-Dec
West Virginia 47% -1.5 Texas A&M 29-Dec
Big 12 starts at 10 2.1 -12.5 10
Louisiana Tech 63% 4.5 Illinois 1 17.0 1.24
Marshall 72% 7.5 N Illinois 1 25.0 1.26
Rice 55% 2.5 Fresno St 1 24.0 1.76
UTEP 20% -10.5 Utah St 0 -15.0 (0.58)
W Kentucky 67% 5.5 C Michigan 1 1.0 0.48
Conference USA starts at -8 2.8 9.5 (4)
BYU 51% 0.5 Memphis 0 -1.0 (1.08)
Navy 44% -2.5 @ San Diego St 1 1.0 1.26
Notre Dame 28% -7.5 LSU 30-Dec
FBS Indep starts at -1 4.0 0.0 (1)
Bowling Green 48% -1.5 South Alabama 1 5.0 1.30
C Michigan 33% -5.5 W Kentucky 0 -1.0 (0.48)
N Illinois 28% -7.5 Marshall 0 -25.0 (1.26)
Toledo 53% 1.5 Arkansas St 4-Jan
W Michigan 45% -2.5 Air Force 0 -14.0 (1.36)
Mid-American starts at -14 2.1 -15.5 (16)
Air Force 55% 2.5 W Michigan 1 14.0 1.36
Boise St 29% -6.5 Arizona 31-Dec
Colorado St 33% -6.5 Utah 0 -25.0 (1.40)
Fresno St 45% -2.5 Rice -24.0 (1.76)
Nevada 66% 5.5 ULL 0 -13.0 (2.06)
San Diego St 56% 2.5 Navy 0 -1.0 (1.26)
Utah St 80% 10.5 UTEP 1 15.0 0.58
Mountain West starts at -7 2.8 9.5 (12)
Arizona 71% 6.5 Boise St 31-Dec
Arizona St 72% 7.5 Duke 1 5.0 0.46
Oregon 80% 10.5 Florida St 1-Jan
Stanford 85% 14.5 Maryland 30-Dec
UCLA 49% -0.5 Kansas St 2-Jan
USC 63% 4.5 Nebraska 1 3.0 0.68
Utah 67% 6.5 Colorado St 1 25.0 1.40
Washington 68% 6.5 Oklahoma St 2-Jan
Pac 12 starts at 13 3.3 31.5 16
Alabama 69% 6.5 Ohio St 1-Jan
Arkansas 74% 7.5 Texas 29-Dec
Auburn 68% 6.5 Wisconsin 1-Jan
Florida 79% 10.5 East Carolina 3-Jan
Georgia 71% 6.5 Louisville 3-Dec
LSU 72% 7.5 Notre Dame 3-Dec
Mississippi 51% 0.5 TCU 31-Dec
Mississippi St 61% 3.5 Georgia Tech 31-Dec
Missouri 71% 7.5 Minnesota 1-Jan
South Carolina 54% 2.5 Miami FL 1 3.0 0.94
Tennessee 63% 4.5 Iowa 2-Jan
Texas A&M 53% 1.5 West Virginia 29-Dec
Southeastern starts at 16 3.0 19.5 17
Arkansas St 47% -1.5 Toledo 4-Jan
South Alabama 52% 1.5 Bowling Green 0 -5.0 (1.30)
ULL 34% -5.5 Nevada 1 13.0 2.06
Sun Belt starts at -14 4.4 14.0 (13)


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