Consumer sentiment fell in early October as views of current economic conditions crashed to an all-time low and inflation expectations moved higher.
The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index dipped from 48.1 to 46.3, the lowest reading since May. This was below even the most pessimistic forecasts. The consensus estimate was for a smaller decline.
The current conditions metric fell to 44.7, the lowest on record, from September’s reading of 50.9.
The expectations index unexpectedly rose to 47.3 from 46.3. This was the first increase since July. It appears to be driven by hopes for the midterm elections, with both Republicans and Democrats registering a bit more optimism while expectations among independents sank.
“While year-ahead expectations for personal finances and business conditions crept up slightly, buying conditions for durables plummeted amid high prices and borrowing costs. Increases in sentiment among Democrats and Republicans were offset by a decline among independents this month,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of the survey.
Consumers expect prices to rise 4.7 percent over the next year, up from 4.6 percent in September. Prior to the Iran war, consumers expected 3.4 percent inflation. Longer-term expectations also ticked up, with inflation expectations over the coming five years rising to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent. Fed officials have said they watch the longer-term expectations closely.
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