This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia consolidates gains in Ukraine with ceasefire plan
- Russia threatens Nato with a new nuclear military doctrine
- Mahmoud Abbas threatens to end the ‘Palestinian unity’ government
Russia consolidates gains in Ukraine with ceasefire plan
U.S. 173 airborne brigade soldiers leave a C-17 aircraft during the ‘Steadfast Javelin II’ military exercise in the former Soviet state of Latvia on Saturday (Reuters/MoscowTimes)
Weeks after Russia sent thousands of troops, hundreds of tanks, andother heavy weapons to join the anti-government militias in Ukraine,Russia appears to be consolidating its gains from the invasion byarranging for a ceasefire on Friday between Ukraine’s government andthe anti-government militias.
The ceasefire may or may not be holding, depending on what reports youread. Apparently the strategic port of Mariupol is still under atleast sporadic attack by the Russians. If the Russian troops aresuccessful in capturing Mariupol, then then can push through and linkup with Russia troops already in the peninsula of Crimea, which Russiainvaded and annexed in March.
There are no analysts that I heard who believe that the conflict isfinally over. By means of “stealth invasion tactics,” the Russiantroops have leveraged local anti-government militias first to annexCrimea, and then to freeze Russian control of much of eastern andsouthern Ukraine, referred to by the Russians as “Novorossiya” (NewRussia). Even if the current ceasefire holds for a few days, thereseems little doubt that Russian troops will eventually push on toCrimea, and then on to the port of Odessa, to link up with thesecessionist Transnistria province of Moldova. France 24 and Bloomberg
Russia threatens Nato with a new nuclear military doctrine
According to Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian military and securityaffairs at New York University, Russia’s success in invading Ukrainecomes from a military doctrine called “non-linear hybrid war” — usinghighly trained and well equipped troops working in unison with localmilitant groups to destabilize territories. He expects Russia’s nextmilitary doctrine revision to “place greater emphasis on interventionforces: the thought that 1,000 to 3,000 troops in the right place andin the right political environment, as we see in Ukraine, can make abig difference.”
Although Nato has indicated that it will not use military force tooppose Russian forces in Ukraine, the invasion has energized Natoenough so that Russia is also revise its military doctrine to envisionnuclear war with Nato, according to Russian sources. The doctrine maylist Nato not only as the primary threat to Russia, but detail thescenarios in which preemptive nuclear strikes against the alliancewould be on the table. Moscow Times
Mahmoud Abbas threatens to end the ‘Palestinian unity’ government
A bitterly angry Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) president MahmoudAbbas is threatening to terminate the “Palestinian unity agreement”that Fatah signed with Hamas on April 23. Abbas is quoted as saying:
“I don’t trust Hamas much because they change theirwords all the time. There must be a unified PalestinianAuthority. …
You [Hamas] are smuggling weapons, explosives and money to the(West) Bank – and not to fight Israel, but to hold a coup againstthe (Palestinian) Authority.
Hamas has been trying to cause the Palestinian Authority to failsince the day it was formed.”
During the last week we’ve been highlighting the Mideast realignment following the Gaza war around a growing fault line separating Israel plus Egypt plusSaudi Arabia plus PA/Fatah versus the Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey,with vitriolicly anti-American Iran increasingly aligning itself withAmerica and the West. So it’s not surprising at all that the Hamas -Fatah unity government is collapsing.
Part of the “peace agreement” that ended the Gaza war wasto give the unity government control of Gaza. However, Abbasis accusing Hamas of running a “shadow government” thatshuts out the unity government:
“We will not accept the situation with Hamascontinuing as it is at the moment.
We won’t accept a partnership with them if the situation continueslike this in Gaza where there is a shadow government … runningthe territory.
The national consensus [unity] government cannot do anything onthe ground.”
Abbas was also bitterly angry at the way Fatah members were treatedduring the war: “Hamas conducted atrocities during the war in Gaza,also at its end when it executed 120 people without trial because theybreached the curfew placed on them.”
Mahmoud Abbas, born 1935, is the last of the major Mideast leaders wholived through and survived the genocidal 1948 war between Jews andArabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation ofthe state of Israel. Like all survivors of generational crisis wars,he has devoted much of his life to try to make sure that nothing sohorrible would happen to his children and grandchildren. As theleader of the Palestinian Authority, he is trying to find a way toprevent the new war that he senses is coming. If he fails, and hewill, it will be the biggest personal failure of his lifetime.al-Jazeera and Deutsche Welle and Israel National News
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Mariupol,Novorossiya, New Russia, Odessa, Transnistria, Moldova,non-linear hybrid war, Nato, Gaza,Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Hamas
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