Statistical Tie in Michigan Poll: Donald Trump Catching Hillary Clinton, and 13 Percent Undecided

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Thirteen percent of Michigan’s likely voters have not picked their candidate yet, even as Donald Trump has powered up to 4 points behind Hillary Clinton in the Democratic firewall state, according to a new poll from the Detroit Free Press.

That massive “Don’t know” response from one in seven voters comes as a pair of tracking polls shows Trump three points behind Clinton or level.

The Free Press poll’s huge “Don’t know” number may reflect voters’ dislike of both candidates, or an unwillingness to openly admit support for Trump. A recent test by Morning Consult, for example, shows that an estimated 7 percent of college graduates hide their support for Trump by telling phone-call pollsters that they support Clinton. 

If Trump wins in Michigan, he’ll get the 270th Electoral Vote he needs to become president, providing he also wins the states where he’s now edging Clinton. Both sides are rushing surrogates into the state help push up their support and to get their voters to the polls. President Barack Obama won the state’s 16 Electoral Votes by 9.4 percentage points in 2012.

The Free Press poll was released Friday, and it shows Clinton at 42 percent and Trump at 38 percent. According to the newspaper: 

Hillary Clinton is hanging onto a narrow 4-point lead over Donald Trump in Michigan heading into the last weekend before Tuesday’s election, with a new Free Press poll showing clear momentum for the Republican nominee in a state that several weeks ago was believed all but decided for the Democrat.

The poll, done exclusively for the Free Press by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, shows Clinton’s support steady at 42% — up a point from where it was late last month. But it also clearly shows Republicans and some independents rallying around Trump in the waning days of the campaign season, with his support up four points from two weeks ago to 38%.

Meanwhile, the number of undecided voters — 13% — remains extraordinarily high for this late in an election cycle

The poll interviewed 600 likely voters, and it has a 4-point margin of error, meaning there’s a 95 percent chance that each result is actually within 4 points of the true number. 

Also tracking poll by Fox 2 in Detroit showed Trump 3 points behind Clinton on Nov. 2 and Nov. 3. The poll was conducted by the Mitchell Poll of Michigan and quizzed 1,150 likely voters, and concluded:

In the four-way ballot question that includes Libertarian Party candidate former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, it is Clinton 47% – Trump 44% – Johnson 4% – Stein 3% while 2% are undecided … The percentages are almost exactly the same as they were the night before.

“Clinton’s weakness with 65 and older white women continued again last night and Trump maintained his small lead with men,” said a statement from Steve Mitchell, the CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications. The firm’s Nov. 2 and Nov. 3 tracking polls showed how:

Clinton did take back most of the support she lost with Democrats on Tuesday night.  Although she stanched the bleeding, Clinton’s problems are taking a toll on her candidacy in Michigan and the state is now in play.  That is likely the reason we have we have seen most of the Trump family including the candidate in Michigan along with former President Bill Clinton.  Tomorrow, Hillary Clinton will be in town campaigning, more evidence of a close race.

The Mitchell poll has a error margin of 2.89 percent, meaning each of the numbers may vary by 2.89 percent.

On Nov. 2, a GOP polling firm, Strategic National, showed a gap of only 1 point in its poll of 500 Likely Voters in Michigan. The poll records Clinton’s support at 45 percent, while Trump’s support climbed to 44 percent. On Nov. 3, Trump drew level with Clinton, according to John Yob, CEO of the Strategic National polling firm.

“Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied in Michigan and we truly have a dead heat going into the final weekend,” Yob said in a statement to Breitbart News.

Trump is over performing in key segments of the electorate especially in rural areas and Macomb County while Clinton is failing to get the numbers she needs out of the city of Detroit.  Michigan is likely to be very busy this weekend and could be the state that determines the next President of the United States.  Republicans have come a long way since Mitt Romney lost it by nearly 10 points just four years ago.

The poll’s error margin is 4.4 percent, meaning each of the numbers in the poll could be 4.4 percent high or lower.

Currently, the Real Clear Politics polling site shows Clinton safely in the lede, with a 5.4 percent gap in a four-way race and a 4.6 percent advantage over Trump in a two-way race.


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