Analysts Predict Republicans Could Regain House Majority by Wide Margin

UNITED STATES - MAY 14: From left, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., newly e
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Analysts from different news outlets and other organizations have predicted that the Republican Party could regain the majority in the House of Representatives by a wide margin after being in the minority for only two election cycles.

Fox News recently released its “Power Rankings” with only 11 weeks until the election, which predicted that Republicans are poised to take the House majority by anywhere from two to 30 seats — a total of 220 to 248 seats for the Republicans depending on how accurate the projection is and where Republicans fall within the projected range.

Fox News noted that the number shrank to 16 seats — given the Republicans would win a lot of the seats ranked as a “toss-up” — since the news outlet predicted six weeks ago that the GOP would take a 22-seat majority.

Additionally, CBS News released its “Battleground Tracker” in July, which predicted that Republicans are poised to take the House majority by winning 230 seats in the election, while the Democrats are projected to win only 205. The margin of error is 12 seats, which could ultimately give the Republicans anywhere between 218 to 242 seats.

The previous update to the CBS News Battleground Tracker showed that Democrats would have the majority in the House with 221 seats, compared to the Republicans’ 214 seats.

Furthermore, in July, the University of Virginia Center for Politics, which predicts the probable outcomes of House races, released its predictions stating that the Republicans are poised to take the House majority by winning  “somewhere in the 20s.”

The prediction from the Center for Politics came out after the Supreme Court released its landmark opinion on abortion, noting that it did not seem to have had a “huge impact” on the election — frustrating the hopes of many Democrats.

Moreover, the Cook Political Report, which also predicts the probable outcome of House races in May, released its predictions, stating that the Republicans are poised to take the House majority noting that the net Republican gains could be between 20 and 35 seats.

The report acknowledged at the time that the prediction was due to President Joe Biden’s average approval rating remaining underwater in dozens of the districts he took during the 2020 presidential election as the country experiences soaring inflation rates, record gas prices, and a baby formula shortage, all while the president’s Build Back Better legislative agenda has stalled.

The Republicans are aiming for a net gain of at least five seats, which would win them back the majority in the House and unseat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) from her speakership.

In addition to the generic ballot, there have been numerous ballots that Breitbart News has chronicled, which show that the battlefield for Republicans to regain the majority in the House is expanding to more districts — a good sign for Republicans as GOP candidates are polling better than Democrats — in some cases, in typically safe seats that President Joe Biden carried in the last presidential election by between 11 and 15 points.

In 2018, the Democrats took the House from the Republicans. In 2020, after striving to reclaim it, the Republicans left the Democrats with the slimmest majority in modern history and gave themselves the upper hand in the midterms.

For Republicans, winning the majority will require a net gain of currently only at least four seats in November, and much is on the line in both the House and the Senate. Losing either could mean the Democrats and Biden will have more difficulty passing their agenda items before the next presidential election.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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