Poll: One-Third of Florida Voters ‘Unsure’ About Abortion Ballot Measure

TINLEY PARK, IL - JULY 31: Stages of a fetus are displayed at the Illinois Right To Life a
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Nearly a third (32 percent) of Florida voters are “unsure” about how they will vote on a November ballot measure that would create a constitutional right to abortion up until 24 weeks of pregnancy, a new poll found. 

The Emerson College Polling survey released on Thursday found that 42 percent of Florida voters intend to vote in favor of the amendment, while 25 percent plan to vote no. The 42 percent in favor is nearly 20 points short of the 60 percent supermajority needed for the measure to pass. 

“Fifty-six percent of Democrats and 44 percent of independents plan to vote in favor of a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Republicans are more split: 36 percent plan to vote no, 30 percent yes, and 34 percent are unsure.”

The proposed amendment is backed by Floridians Protecting Freedom — a coalition of left-wing groups including Planned Parenthood and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Florida — and bars the state from restricting abortion before viability (approximately 24 weeks) or “when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”

The abortion activists backing the measure surpassed the number of required signatures in January, and the measure will appear as “Amendment 4” on the general election ballot, according to state officials.

On April 1, the Florida Supreme Court issued two significant decisions, upholding a 15-week limit on abortion in the state while also allowing a proposed abortion amendment to appear on the ballot in November.

The court’s decision to allow the 15-week limit to stand also clears the way for the state’s six-week abortion limit to take effect. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed the 15-week limit in 2022, which Planned Parenthood affiliates in the state almost immediately challenged in court. DeSantis then signed the six-week Heartbeat Bill in April 2023, which contains exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. The state Supreme Court allowed the six-week limit to remain blocked until it could rule on the 15-week limit.

If Florida voters pass the measure with at least 60 percent support in November, the amendment would undo the six-week limit and basically create a permanent right to abortion in the state that could only be undone with another ballot measure or an uphill legal battle.

Nearly 60 percent of poll respondents (57 percent) say the six-week abortion limit is “too strict,” according to the survey. Fifteen percent say they law is not strict enough, and 28 percent say the law is about right.

“Regarding the current 15-week ban, 43 percent think it is too strict, 21 percent think it is not strict enough, and 36 percent think it is about right,” according to the survey report. 

Fifty-nine percent of Florida voters says they are more motivated than in previous elections, while 13 percent are less motivated, and 28 percent feel roughly the same.

In a matchup between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Florida voters overwhelmingly support Trump 51 percent to 38 percent, and 11 percent are undecided.

“With the candidate undecided voters lean toward allocated, Trump’s overall support increases to 56 percent, and Biden to 44 percent,” according to the survey report. 

Respondents were also asked to weigh in on which issues are most important to them ahead of November elections. Respondents rank the economy as the most important issue at 27 percent, following by housing affordability at 16 percent and immigration at 14 percent. Roughly 10 percent of Florida voters say “abortion access” is their top issue, the poll found. 

The survey was conducted April 9-10, 2024 with 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

Katherine Hamilton is a political reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow her on X @thekat_hamilton.


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