Former President Donald Trump is making a “heavy move into Minnesota,” hoping to flip the state red after it has consistently voted blue in the presidential election since 1976.
Trump is heading to the blue state this week, speaking at the Minnesota Republican Party’s Lincoln Reagan dinner. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), the Trump campaign’s state campaign chair, said the Minnesota GOP is “honored to welcome” Trump to the state:
Honored to welcome the former and next President of the United States @realDonaldTrump to Minnesota!
We are going to end the failed policies of the Biden Administration and get this country back on track. https://t.co/ytmd5YK2U9
— Tom Emmer (@tomemmer) May 6, 2024
Speaking to KNSI Radio, Trump made it clear that he believes Minnesota is winnable.
“It’s not like, in my opinion, that blue,” he said. “We’re going to put a heavy move into Minnesota, I promise.”
The last time the state went red in a presidential election was in 1972, going all in for Richard Nixon. But from 1976 on, the state has stood as a Democrat stronghold in the presidential elections. Trump came close to flipping the state in the 2016 election, losing the state by 1.5 percent, or garnering 44.9 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 46.4 percent.
The Democrat advantage — percentage wise — grew in 2020, as President Biden formally took the state with 52.4 percent to Trump’s 45.3 percent — a difference of 7.1 percentage points.
WFTV9 spoke to University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs, who signaled that Biden could have some trouble in the state this time around, given the state of the economy.
“It could force Biden to move money out of states he thinks he could take from Trump,” he said. “It looks to me like Minnesota is in play.”
“And if Minnesota is in play, Trump’s investment of time and money make sense,” he added.
Perhaps what is more, recent surveys indicate that there is movement in the Trump’s direction. An April poll from McLaughlin & Associates shows Trump leading Biden by three points in a head-to-head matchup in the state — 49 percent to the 81-year-old’s 46 percent.
As Breitbart News reported:
In a matchup between Trump, Biden, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Libertarian Lars Mapstead, Trump sees a five-point advantage, garnering 46 percent support to Biden’s 41 percent, Stein’s three percent, and Mapstead’s one percent. Nine percent remain undecided.
In a matchup including Trump, Biden, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Mapstead, Trump and Biden tie with 40 percent each. Kennedy sees nine percent support, followed by one percent for West, one percent for Stein, and half a percent for Mapstead. Another nine percent remain undecided:
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1787947634881102182
During a December interview with Breitbart News, Trump spoke about his intentions to make a play for some of these traditionally blue states, including Minnesota.
“One of the other things I’m going to do — and I may be foolish in doing it — is I’m going to make a heavy play for New York, heavy play for New Jersey, heavy play for Virginia, heavy play for New Mexico, and a heavy play for a state that hasn’t been won in years, Minnesota,” Trump said.
As Breitbart News reported:
Minnesota, meanwhile, has been perennially close in recent elections. In 2016, for instance, Trump came within about 45,000 voters of Democrat Hillary Clinton. In fact, not just the third-place candidate, Libertarian Gary Johnson, but also the fourth place candidate, Never Trumper Evan McMullin, both got more votes than the margin that separated Trump and Clinton in 2016 in Minnesota. Trump had barely done any events there, just an airport flyby rally and a fundraiser earlier in the year. In 2020, Biden did significantly better than Clinton in Minnesota, but the margin that separated Trump and Biden was still fewer than 235,000 votes there.
The Minnesota GOP’s Lincoln Reagan Dinner takes place May 17.
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