Israelis head to the polls Tuesday in a pivotal election after nearly three years of war, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeking another term, President Donald Trump making an extraordinary intervention on his behalf, and nearly every major poll pointing to a political deadlock.
Israel’s first national election since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, massacre comes at a critical juncture for the Jewish state, with the confrontation against Iran unresolved, deep divisions over the government’s handling of the attack and subsequent war, and growing uncertainty surrounding Israel’s future relationship with the United States.
Netanyahu, 77, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is seeking another term after nearly 19 years in office since first taking power in 1996. His principal challenger is former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose new centrist Yashar! (“Straight!”) party has emerged as the leading opposition force.
But despite Eisenkot’s polling lead, the election could produce no clear winner. Nearly every major final survey shows both Netanyahu’s current governing bloc and the parties seeking to replace him falling short of the 61 seats required for a majority in Israel’s 120-member parliament, the Knesset, raising the prospect of prolonged coalition negotiations, an unexpected political alliance, or another election.
Trump’s Extraordinary Intervention in Israel’s Election
Trump has intervened directly in Israel’s election campaign with two public endorsements of Netanyahu, portraying the prime minister as an indispensable partner in the unfinished confrontation against Iran.
In his first endorsement last Sunday, Trump praised Netanyahu as a “Great Warrior Prime Minister” and warned that replacing him could leave the United States to confront Tehran alone.
“If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so,” Trump wrote.
Trump renewed that appeal Sunday, just two days before the election, urging Israelis to return Netanyahu to office so the two leaders could complete their mission against Iran.
“Vote for Bibi Netanyahu for Prime Minister, we have to finish the job that we started!” Trump declared.
On Monday, Trump denied reports that Netanyahu had privately requested his renewed endorsement, telling reporters, “No, I never spoke to him about it.”
“I think he has done a very good job as prime minister under very trying conditions,” Trump added.
Netanyahu has made his partnership with Trump a central pillar of his reelection campaign, arguing that their remaining time in office together presents a historic opportunity to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat and expand the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements brokered during Trump’s first presidency.
Speaking Sunday, Netanyahu stressed the unprecedented relationship between the two leaders and warned that Israel might never again enjoy such close ties with an American president.
“US President Donald Trump has come with a friendship that has never existed before between an Israeli prime minister and an American president,” Netanyahu said.
“He has another two years, and he says he is calling on you to vote for me,” he added.
Netanyahu suggested the partnership could lead to renewed military action against Iran, arguing that Trump was prepared to help permanently remove the threat posed by Tehran.
The United States and Israel launched their joint military campaign against Iran in February, inflicting extensive damage on the regime’s military and nuclear infrastructure. But Tehran’s nuclear ambitions remain unresolved, and both leaders have indicated that further action remains possible.
Netanyahu has reinforced his warnings with increasingly stark campaign messages, including an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, which he used to warn of the consequences of allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
He has also identified expanding the Abraham Accords as a priority for another term, arguing that Israel’s military achievements have created opportunities for additional Arab and Muslim countries to establish relations with the Jewish state.
Netanyahu is asking Israelis to give him another term to complete the military and diplomatic objectives he began pursuing alongside Trump, presenting their partnership as a strategic advantage that a change in leadership could jeopardize.
Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have challenged that argument, contending that Netanyahu’s record must also be judged by the intelligence and security failures surrounding October 7 and his management of the wars that followed.
Eisenkot Challenges Netanyahu’s Leadership
Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff who rose through the military’s Golani infantry brigade, presents a markedly different political style from Netanyahu, emphasizing his military experience, public accountability, and a promise to restore trust in Israel’s institutions.
Following Hamas’s October 7 attack, Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s emergency wartime government and served as an observer in its war cabinet before leaving alongside former Defense Minister Benny Gantz in June 2024.
The Gaza war also brought personal tragedy: Eisenkot’s son and two nephews were killed while serving in the military.
Eisenkot has campaigned on establishing an independent state commission of inquiry into October 7, changing the country’s approach to military conscription, and overhauling aspects of governance.
He has also accused Netanyahu of placing political survival ahead of the country’s interests and failing to deliver on key wartime objectives.
But the contest is not a conventional confrontation between Israel’s right and left.
Eisenkot takes a hard line against Iran’s nuclear program, opposes Palestinian statehood under present circumstances, and has pledged to dismantle Hamas’s remaining governing and military capabilities.
Earlier this month, he promised that within 18 months of becoming prime minister, Hamas would no longer govern Gaza and its military wing would be destroyed.
The broader opposition is united in seeking Netanyahu’s removal but remains divided over how Israel should be governed afterward.
Alongside Eisenkot’s Yashar! are former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid, running together under the B’Yachad (“Together”) alliance; former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s nationalist Yisrael Beytenu (“Israel Our Home”); and the left-wing Democrats, led by former IDF deputy chief of staff Yair Golan.
Although they share opposition to Netanyahu, the parties differ over relations with the Palestinians, the role of religion in government, and potential coalition arrangements.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, is seeking to preserve a governing alliance built around his Likud party and its religious and nationalist partners, including the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit (“Jewish Power”), and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party.
Those partners have helped sustain Netanyahu’s government since 2022, but their positions on ultra-Orthodox military exemptions, judicial reform, and Israeli policy in Judea and Samaria, also known as the West Bank, have become major points of contention with the opposition.
October 7, Military Service, and Israel’s Domestic Divisions
The election will also determine how Israel confronts the intelligence, military, and political failures surrounding Hamas’s October 7 massacre, which killed approximately 1,200 people and plunged the country into war.
Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have demanded an independent state commission of inquiry, while Netanyahu has rejected the proposed appointment process as politically biased and backed an alternative investigation with representation from both the coalition and opposition.
Another major dividing line is military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men, whose longstanding exemptions have become increasingly contentious as years of war have placed extraordinary demands on Israel’s soldiers and reservists.
Opposition leaders have called for broader military or national service, while Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners have resisted compulsory enlistment measures they argue would threaten their religious communities and institutions.
The election also revives the bitter dispute over judicial reform, with Netanyahu’s supporters arguing that elected officials must have greater authority over an increasingly powerful judiciary, while opponents contend the proposed changes would weaken essential checks on government power.
The next government will also face the economic burden of prolonged war, disputes over settlement expansion in Judea and Samaria, and mounting diplomatic pressure over Israel’s conduct in Gaza and the territories.
Israel’s Changing Relationship with Washington
Netanyahu has warned that Israel must use the remaining years of Trump’s presidency to strengthen its domestic defense industry and prepare for a future in which the country is less dependent on American military assistance.
The Israeli leader has increasingly emphasized greater military and economic self-sufficiency, arguing that Israel must be capable of defending itself even as it maintains its strategic alliance with Washington.
But Israel’s challenges in Washington increasingly extend beyond Netanyahu himself, as influential voices on the American left argue that replacing the longtime prime minister should not automatically lead to a restoration of the traditional U.S.-Israel relationship.
In a New York Times opinion essay Friday, Jon Finer, who served as President Joe Biden’s principal deputy national security adviser, argued that Democrats should maintain pressure on Israel even under a new government, including through restrictions on military assistance, conditioning arms sales, and additional measures targeting Israeli settlement activity.
Jewish Insider reported Monday that progressive organizations have similarly begun preparing arguments for continued pressure on Israel regardless of Tuesday’s result.
The report cited a messaging document from the Institute for Middle East Understanding circulated to congressional offices that characterized both Netanyahu and Eisenkot in highly critical terms and urged continued restrictions on American support for Israel.
J Street, the progressive Israel advocacy organization, has also cautioned against assuming that Netanyahu’s departure should restore previous levels of American support, arguing that pressure over Israeli policies should continue under a successor government.
Former Israeli ambassador to Washington Michael Oren has likewise warned that replacing Netanyahu would not necessarily reverse Israel’s deteriorating standing among American Democrats.
The developments underscore a challenge for whoever forms Israel’s next government: repairing strained international relationships while maintaining the American partnership Israel considers essential to confronting Iran and other regional threats.
Final Polls Show Neither Bloc Can Secure a Majority
Israel’s final major television polls showed a remarkably consistent picture: neither Netanyahu’s governing alliance nor the parties seeking to replace him are securing the 61 seats necessary to form a government.
Surveys published Friday by Channels 11, 12, and 13 projected approximately 50 seats for Netanyahu’s existing coalition and between 52 and 56 for Eisenkot’s opposition bloc, with Arab-led parties and smaller factions holding the remaining seats.
Channel 14, which has consistently projected stronger results for Netanyahu’s alliance, was the principal outlier, placing his bloc substantially closer to a parliamentary majority.
The deadlock leaves smaller parties and the Arab-led factions potentially decisive, particularly if votes cast for parties failing to cross Israel’s electoral threshold are excluded from the allocation of Knesset seats.
But assembling an alternative coalition would require Eisenkot to overcome substantial political divisions, including opposition among potential partners to governing with Arab parties or depending on their support.
Israelis vote for party lists rather than directly electing a prime minister, with parliamentary seats allocated proportionally among parties receiving at least 3.25 percent of the national vote.
After the results are finalized, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult the elected parties and assign a lawmaker the task of trying to form a government, typically the leader considered most capable of assembling a parliamentary majority.
That process can produce outcomes sharply different from the election night standings.
In 2021, Naftali Bennett became prime minister despite his party winning just seven seats, joining a broad coalition that included the Islamist Ra’am party after previously ruling out such an arrangement.
That history looms over one of the election’s most consequential possibilities: a unity government bringing together Netanyahu and Eisenkot despite their bitter political rivalry.
The Washington Post reported Monday that Netanyahu has discussed such an arrangement with American and European officials, potentially replacing some of his current right-wing partners with Eisenkot’s party, while figures associated with Trump have also explored the possibility.
According to the newspaper, Netanyahu has indicated that bringing Eisenkot into a future government could allow him to dispense with controversial coalition partners such as Ben-Gvir, whose positions have complicated relations with Washington and other foreign governments.
Such an agreement could allow Netanyahu to remain prime minister even if Likud finishes behind Yashar!, while significantly changing the ideological composition of Israel’s governing coalition.
Eisenkot, however, has repeatedly rejected serving under Netanyahu, including through a rotating premiership, and remains deeply critical of the prime minister’s leadership.
The former military chief has insisted that Israel’s voters, rather than Trump or his advisers, will determine the election’s outcome.
If neither camp can assemble a majority, Israel could face prolonged negotiations or another election, with Netanyahu remaining in office as caretaker prime minister in the meantime.
Tens of Thousands Return as Israel Prepares to Vote
The election’s intensity was on display Monday at Ben Gurion Airport, where Israelis arriving from overseas encountered campaign activists waving flags, singing patriotic songs, and urging returning citizens to cast their ballots.
Because Israel generally does not permit absentee voting from abroad, tens of thousands of citizens have traveled home to participate in an election that could hinge on a small number of parliamentary seats.
The AID Coalition, which has assisted Israelis overseas with election-related travel information, estimated that approximately 67,000 citizens would return to vote, although the figure remains an estimate rather than a confirmed count.
Approximately 7.33 million Israelis are eligible to vote, with most polling stations opening Tuesday at 7 a.m. and closing at 10 p.m. local time.
Exit polls are expected shortly after voting ends, but with neither major political camp projected to secure a majority, determining who will actually govern Israel could take considerably longer.
For Netanyahu, Tuesday’s election represents an opportunity to secure another term and continue a partnership with Trump that he argues is essential to Israel’s future security. For Eisenkot, it is a chance to replace the country’s longest-serving leader and chart a different course after October 7.
But with the competing political blocs struggling to assemble a majority, the election may settle neither Netanyahu’s political future nor the question of who will govern Israel as the confrontation with Iran continues.
Joshua Klein is a reporter for Breitbart News. Email him at jklein@breitbart.com. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaKlein.
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