Polls Show Race Remains Close in Multiple States

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton engaged in a pre-dawn Twitter match over former Miss Universe Alicia Machado, who claims Trump bullied her mercilessly after she won his beauty pageant in 1996

With Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton up double digits in only one poll on the RealClearPolitics average of polls, close to or within the margin of error in several more, and GOP nominee Donald Trump up between one and seven points in still a few more, it is apparent that this race is still a close fought contest in this second week of October.

In Ohio, for instance, Quinnipiac has a poll taken in the second week of October showing Clinton and Trump in a tie in a four way race with the Libertarian and Green Party candidates, the latter tow in at six and one percent respectively. With a margin of error 3.9 percent Ohio could swing either way for Quinnipiac.

For the same period in Ohio, the RealClearPolitics average has Trump up 0.7. Over the same week, Emerson has Clinton up two, NBC/WSJ/Marist has Trump up one, and CNN/ORC has Trump up four.

But where Clinton is leading she is often within the margin of error or close to it. In Florida, Quinnipiac has Clinton up four with a margin of error (MOE) 3.9, making the race a statistical tie. CNN/ORC has Nevada at Clinton plus two with an MOE of 3.5. And in Colorado, Quinnipiac has Trump up eight with a 3.7 MOE.

As to the states Trump is leading in for the second week of October, CNN/ORC has Trump up four in Ohio with a 3.9 MOE, JMC Analytics has Trump up seven in Louisiana with a 3.5 MOE, and Rasmussen has Trump up one in Utah with an MOE of four.

Clearly this race is a far tighter affair than many in the media want to let on.

Follow Warner Todd Huston on Twitter @warnerthuston or email the author at igcolonel@hotmail.com.


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