Trump Leads Nationally, and In IA, NH, SC, FL

According to the Real Clear Politics poll of national polls, Donald Trump is a full +10.4% ahead of second place. He beats Jeb Bush 23.2% to 12.8%. Scott Walker is in third place with just 10.6%. Fourth place Dr. Ben Carson is at a distant 6.6%.

That is nationally. According to the most recent state polls, Trump’s national surge is trickling down to a number of the important early states.

 

February 1: Iowa Caucus

A Gravis Marketing poll released July 31 has Trump beating second and third place combined. Currently, the millionaire businessman enjoys 30.9% support. Scott Walker comes in second with 15.4% support. Jeb Bush trails in third with just 10%.

The RCP poll of Iowa polls has Walker up +7.5%. The most recent poll on this survey is from July 21 and showed Trump just -2% behind Walker, 19% to 17%. The Gravis poll is not included in this survey.

 

February 9: New Hampshire

Trump is currently running away with New Hampshire. The most recent poll has him up +12% over second place Bush (12%) and third place Walker (11%.)

The RCP poll of New Hampshire polls has Trump ahead by a commanding +10.3%.

 

February 20: South Carolina

A Gravis Marketing poll released Monday has Trump up a whopping +23 points over second place. Currently, Trump sits at 34% support. Dr. Ben Carson, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are clustered in second, third, and fourth place with 10.%, 10.5%, and 10.3%.

According to the RCP poll of South Carolina polls, which has not yet added the Gravis poll, Bush is up +3.3%. The newest poll included in this average is from June 22.

 

Florida: March 15

The most recent poll from the Sunshine State is all bad news for favorite sons Bush and Rubio. Trump leads the field with 26% support. Bush is at 20%, Walker 12.2%, Rubio 9.7%.

The RCP poll of Florida polls does not include the poll above and has Bush up +6.3%.

The most important poll released recently, though, is a Monmouth University national poll which has Trump’s favorability rating at 52% with Republican voters. Only Rubio’s favorable rating is higher (54%). Trump’s number ties him up with Bush and Cruz, and puts him ahead of the rest of the pack.

The importance of Trump’s skyrocketing approval numbers cannot be underestimated. This means that his ceiling of support is now high enough to win the GOP nomination.

As Trump rose in the polls throughout last month, the arrogant GOP Establishment and bubble-dumb mainstream media bitterly clung to the idea that Trump was doomed to fail due to his low favorable ratings.

That is no longer the case. In fact, Trump’s unfavorable ratings is now just 36%; that’s just 6 points higher than Establishment favorite Jeb Bush.

 

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC               


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