Joe Biden (D), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are in a virtual dead heat for first place, according to Emerson Polling results released Tuesday.
The September National Emerson College poll surveyed 462 individuals September 21-23, 2019, and found the top three candidates – Biden, Warren, and Sanders – clustered close together with 25 percent, 23 percent, and 22 percent, respectively. With a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent, the three are virtually tied. Emerson described the latest results as a “three-way dead heat.”
While – margin of error aside – Biden holds a slight edge, the poll reflects a six-point drop from the 31 percent support he saw in August. Warren, however, has experienced a surge, jumping eight points – from 15 percent to 23 percent – since last month’s results. Sanders has remained relatively steady, only seeing a slight drop in support from the 24 percent he saw in August.
The poll also showed Andrew Yang with eight percent support, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) with six percent support, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) continuing to tumble, dropping to sixth place with four percent support. Julián Castro (D) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) saw two percent support. The remaining candidates garnered one percent support or less:
#National Emerson Poll (9/21-23):
Biden 25%
Warren 23%
Sanders 22%
Yang 8%
Buttigieg 6%
Harris 4%
Booker 2%
Castro 2%
O'Rourke 1%
Ryan 1%
Gabbard 1%
Sestak 1%
Williamson 1%
Klobuchar 0%
Delaney 0%
Bennet 0%
Bullock 0%
Messam 0%
Steyer 0%— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 24, 2019
Emerson noted Sanders’ edge with voters under the age of 50, while Biden holds the advantage with older voters:
Sanders continues to hold an advantage with voters under 50, with 28% support from that group of voters. Conversely, Biden continues to dominate the older vote with 42% support from those age 50 or over. Warren competes with her rivals with both age groups, as she receives 23% support from those under 50 and 23% support among those 50 and over.
Among voters who supported Sanders in 2016, 37% still support him, 23% now support Warren, 10% now support Biden and 9% now support Yang. In contrast, among those who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, 41% now support Biden, 22% support Warren, 14% support Sanders, and 6% support Harris.
The results reflect a greater trend of a Warren surge both nationally and in early primary and caucus states.
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