Poll: Roy Moore Now Leads by Five Points in Alabama

A poll released by Change Research late Monday shows that conservative Republican candidate Roy Moore leads liberal Democrat candidate Doug Jones by five points in the December 12 Alabama U.S. Senate special election, 49 percent to 44 percent.

According to the poll:

Alabama Republican Roy Moore has reopened a 49–44 lead over Democrat Doug Jones in the race for U.S. Senate. In Change Research’s third poll since the sexual misconduct allegations against Moore first surfaced on November 9, we found that he has completely erased the 3-point lead Jones had opened up in mid-November. Moore’s lead is now just as large as it was just after the story broke.

What has changed? The largest difference is turnout: many Republicans who ten days ago said they might not vote, now say they plan to show up on Election Day and vote for Moore. In mid-November, 82% of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 said they would “definitely” vote on December 12; that number has climbed to 88%. Additionally, Moore has made some gains with his base: his 91–5 lead with them ten days ago has grown to a 93–4 edge. In mid-November, 10% of voters had planned to cast a write-in vote; that number has dropped to 7%.

The poll was conducted between November 26 and 27. “The sample consisted of 1,868 registered Alabama voters (self-reported). Post stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, education, and self-reported 2016 Presidential vote, with additional weighting based on predicted likelihood of voting in this election,” Change Research said of its methodology.

Change Research told Breitbart News the margin of error of the poll is 2.3 percent.

The party affiliation of respondents (self-identified) was 45 percent Republican, 26 percent Democrat, 29 percent Independent.

“Compared to 10 days ago, fewer Republicans believe the allegations against Moore,” Change Research noted.

“Donald Trump also expressed support for Moore this week, and it may have provided the Republican with a small bump,” the polling firm added.

“AL.com’s strong support for Jones may have provided a modest bump for him: 3% of voters said they now plan to vote for him as a result of [the company’s pro-Jones] editorial,” Change Research added.

“On Sunday the Alabama Media Group placed an above-the-fold editorial in the state’s three largest newspapers which it owns–the Birmingham News, Mobile’s Press Register, and the Huntsville Times–and its al.com website, urging voters in the state to support the liberal Democrat Doug Jones over the conservative Republican Roy Moore in the December 12 U.S. Senate election ‘to stand for decency,’ ” Breitbart News reported last week, adding:

 

The Alabama Media Group is wholly owned by Advance Publications, the New York City-based media giant controlled by the descendants of S. I. Newhouse, who founded the company in 1922.

Forbes magazine lists Advance Publications as one of the 200 largest privately held companies in the country, with $2.4 billion in revenues and 9,000 employees in 2016.

The company owns Conde Nast Publications, which includes Vogue, Vanity Fair, and GQ magazines, as well as 25 local newspapers around the country, including the three in Alabama and the Cleveland Plain Dealer in Ohio (cleveland.com), the Syracuse Post-Standard in New York, the Star-Ledger in New Jersey (NJ.com), the Times-Picayune in New Orleans, Louisiana, and the Oregonian (oregonlive.com), among others.

 

The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls shows the race to be tighter, with Jones leading by eight-tenths of one percent, well within the margin of error.

Moore’s resurgence is remarkable given recent press reports that the Jones campaign has outspent the Moore campaign by a 10-to-1 margin.

“According to the ad-tracking group Advertising Analytics LLC, Jones’ campaign has shoveled $5.6 million into television and radio ads during the general election, compared to about $600,000 by Moore’s team. That 10-to-1 advantage for Jones is almost unchanged from two weeks ago,” NBC reported on Tuesday.


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