National Polls Show Biden Lead, Warren Surge Behind Him

Combo Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden
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A trio of national polls released this week shows Joe Biden (D) maintaining his status as the party’s frontrunner, but Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is continuing to make her presence felt within the top tier.

The IBD/TIPP Poll – one of the three surveys released this week – showed Biden leading the pack with 28 percent support from registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning independent voters. However, Warren came in just four points behind him with 24 percent support– a seven-point jump from last month’s results. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) came in a full 12 points behind Warren with 12 percent support. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) came in fourth, falling from 11 percent support in August to just six percent support. The remaining candidates remained relatively the same, with Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) coming in fifth place with five percent support, followed by Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) with four percent support:

The September IBD/TIPP Poll reflected 903 responses collected from Aug. 22-30 and has a margin of error of 3.3%. The 2020 general election matchup polling reflects 848 registered voters. The Democratic nomination polling reflects 360 registered voters who are either Democrats or lean Democrat.

Sanders fared better in the Morning Consult poll, which showed him behind Biden – who saw 32 percent support – with 20 percent support. Morning Consult showed Warren in third place with 16 percent support, followed by Harris and Buttigieg with eight percent and five percent, respectively. Beto O’Rourke (D), Andrew Yang (D), and Booker garnered three percent support each:

The interviews were collected from August 26 – September 1, 2019 and have a margin of error of +/- 1%. The “Early Primary State Voters” demographic consists of 701 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, conducted August 26-28, 2019, among 2,531 registered voters, paralleled Morning Consult’s order, with Biden leading with 32 percent. Sanders came in second with 16 percent support, followed by Warren with 13 percent. The Hill noted Warren’s 13 percent as a “5-point jump since the last Harvard CAPS/Harris poll,” which was taken after July’s Democrat debates in Detroit.

As repeated in other polls, Harris came in fourth place with seven percent support, followed by Buttigieg with four percent support, Booker with three percent support, and Yang with two percent support. The margin of error was not immediately available.

The recent polls suggest that the race is not as volatile as lower-tier candidates likely hope. Significant shifts in standings have – for the most part – remained confined to the top three candidates, all of whom will appear on the same debate stage for the first time in Houston, Texas, September 12.

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