RealClearPolitics Flips Key States for Donald Trump in Final Days of Election

The Associated Press
The Associated Press
Hannah Knudsen

RealClearPolitics (RCP) flipped four crucial battleground states from Joe Biden (D) to President Donald Trump in the final days leading up to the election.

Trump has taken the lead in key states — including Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio — in the final days of the election, according to RCP. Voters have largely looked to the RCP average to measure which candidate has the momentum going into Election Day. Some, such as Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly, have warned that most polls are not taking the ‘hidden” Trump vote into account.

As of Tuesday morning, Trump led in Georgia by 1 percent, North Carolina by 0.2 percent, Ohio by 1 percent, and Iowa by 2 percent. Biden reportedly held a 1.2 percent edge in the Hawkeye State mere days ago, but a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released over the weekend helped move the average the president’s way, as it showed Trump leading the former vice president by seven percent.

RCP’s Tuesday averages in other key states show the race narrowing. RCP’s averages in both Arizona and Florida show Biden with a lead smaller than one percent. In Pennsylvania, Biden holds a 1.2 percent edge.

Other key states include:

Minnesota: Biden +4.3
Michigan: Biden +4.2
Wisconsin: Biden +6.7

Notably, the final RCP average had Hillary Clinton winning Pennsylvania (Clinton +2.1), Wisconsin (+6.5), and Michigan (Clinton +3.6) in 2016, as Breitbart News detailed.

A KSTP/SurveyUSA leading up to the election showed Clinton taking Minnesota by double digits, but she ultimately took the state by 1.5 percent.

Other RCP averages in 2016, which pointed to a Trump victory in the states, underestimated his lead. Those states include Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.

“People are going to be shocked,” Cahaly told Politico. “A lot of people are going to vote this year who have been dormant or low-propensity voters. I think it’s going to be at an all-time high.”

Florida, a key battleground state, appears to be experiencing “historic” turnout among GOP voters, according to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL):

The GOP, which went into Election Day trailing Democrats by over 100k ballots cast in the Sunshine State, have reportedly overtaken their lead:

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