This morning, Washington Post & ABC released their latest poll of the presidential race. Naturally, they find Obama leading Romney by 3 points, 49-46. This is similar to their last poll, which found Obama leading by 2, 49-47. Similar, but very, very different. Their last poll had a D+3 sample. Today, though, to keep Obama where he was, they had to juice the sample to D+9. So, WaPo's poll is based on an unrealistic best-case scenario for Democrat turnout, and Obama is still under 50%. Doom.
In 2008, Democrats enjoyed their biggest turnout advantage in decades. The electorate was D+7. That year, Obama won the election by 7 points. Today's WaPo poll, against all available evidence, envisions an electorate that is even more Democrat, tipping the scales to give the Dems a +9 advantage. Even then, Obama's lead is only 3 points, and he is still stuck at the nettlesome 49%.
Keep in mind, the previous poll from WaPo was conducted before the first presidential debate. That was widely seen as a complete disaster for Obama. Even in today's poll, WaPo finds that, by a 51-point margin, voters thought Romney won the debate. Yet, today's poll assumes that Democrats will have a 3x greater turnout edge than the previous poll. WaPo and ABC would have you believe that there has been the greatest surge to the Democrat party ever recorded.
Even more incredibly, this "surge" has come against findings that enthusiasm for Romney is increasing among his supporters.
Romney now numerically leads Obama in strong enthusiasm and trails him in anxiety among potential voters, both firsts this season.
So, how did WaPo find such a wave of new Democrat support? The voters in this poll thought Romney trounced Obama in the debate. Enthusiasm among his supporters is higher than Obama's. And, Romney is winning independents, in this poll, by 6 points. Yet, the WaPo thinks Democrat's turnout advantage tripled this month?
This isn't a poll. It's propaganda. But, it's very weak propaganda. The WaPo tripled the Democrat's advantage in this poll, and Obama didn't pick up any more support. The WaPo and ABC have, sadly, become addicts, needing higher levels of doping simply to maintain a level buzz. Hopefully, they can start rehab on November 7th.
Follow me on twitter